Great win.

NIce OB rejection and multiple wick rejection. UD/USD is behaving like a cyclical risk asset, showing far stronger relationships with crude oil and US stock futures than US interest rates directly like USD/JPY.

The readthrough is that if traders continue to run with the soft landing narrative, we may see further upside for AUD/USD but limited downside for USD/JPY. But if Fed rate cut pricing were to increase significantly further, it would imply a growing risk of a hard economic landing, likely dragging AUD/USD and USD/JPY lower.

Incoming economic data will therefore be important ahead of the Fed.