Potential Sell on AUDUSD

15 มิ.ย. 2023

Here are a few factors to consider as we take on this outlook on the pair:
Weekly
-the weekly structure is STILL bearish, regardless of the current bullish push
-we have returned to the ranging market parameters we had seen in the previous 12 weeks prior to the week of 20th May
-0.68000 and 0.66000 played a pivotal role in price action during those 12 weeks
-we are, currently, at 0.68000 institutional zone
-we are still in a potent selloff to fulfill the -27% extension on the weekly

H4:
-we have (14th June) tapped into the May high and slipped back below it to indicate that we simply grabbed liquidity
-price came up once more and got rejection off the high's level (0.68180) and is currently being maintained under it
-the recent bullish assault on the pair may end up being just that- a hunt for liquidity
-price is currently at the critical price zone of 0.68000

This being the case, the sell trade will be entirely dependent on:
-a break of structure to the downside on the midrange (H1)
-a retracement (preferably back to 0.68000 to fill institutional orders)
-a key level rejection (daily or H4)
-former H4 wick/order zone being tapped
-a fib level to act as minor confluence

Target: 0.67000 overall, generally the -27% extension of the new swing

Please note that, considering recent momentum, we might as well break structure to the upside and abandon the bear market.
If this happens, I shall adjust my view and seek highs above 0.68400.
This is why a break in structure below 0.67500 is critical before engaging sells.

NOTE: this is not financial advice and is just my opinion on the pair. Kindly make financial decisions based on your own assessment and analysis of the market.