AUD/NZD Weekly forecast (coronavirus affect)

16 ส.ค. 2021

According to the chart above we can see that trading pair AUD/NZD sitting on the weekly demand zone between the price region 1.0380-1.0440 which is also in the Fibonacci retracement support zone (50.00%-61.8%).
If the buyers will enter into the long positions we can expect that the price will again test the supply zone at 1.100 which is also a BRN psychological number.

The biggest Australian and New Zealand banks have a less pessimistic outlook for both the Aussie (AUD) and the Kiwi (NZD) - reflected in their AUD to NZD forecasts in 2021.
But, they recognise there is a lot of uncertainty from coronavirus and a slowdown in New Zealand will be large, and recovery slow. That's probably why 2021 forecasts for the major banks vary significantly.
However, their outlook for the NZD is more negative than positive compared to the AUD. According to ANZ.

Coronavirus affect
As coronavirus increases volatility in currency markets including the EUR and GBP. Generally, safe-haven currencies like the USD, CHF, and JPY could move higher. However, commodity currencies such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and ZAR exchange rates could fall. This could mean that confidence may be returning for the global economic outlook.
However, a faltering recovery from the ongoing threat of coronavirus could continue to create sharp moves in currency crosses like the Australian dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate.

If we summarize long term AUD/NZD forecast
ANZ says it's hard to be upbeat on the NZD and expects the AUD to NZD exchange rate to end 2021 at 1.0753
Westpac expects the AUD to NZD to fall to around 1.1364 by the end of next year
NAB predicts the AUD to NZD forecast exchange rates for the end of next year to be 1.0800