AMZN Ping Pong Strategy

8 ต.ค. 2021

AMZN Ping Pong
1 year range from Sept '20

AMZN Levels: major levels bolded

• Jefferies price target lmao: 5300
  
• measured move pt: 4257
  (invalid as broke down from original consolidation pattern)
  
• 1.618 fib: 3800
• Major Trendline Resist: 3750
• Top Range: 3550
• 0.786 fib and trendline resist: 3360
  
• Wedge consolidation pivot: 3317
  (above is 3475, below is 3170)
• local hourly SR: 3300
  
• 0.618 fib: 3275
  
• 0.50 fib and big triangle: 3250
  
• Key Pivot: 3170
  (above is 3317, below is 3000)
• 0.382 fib weak sup: 3150
  (sell 3150p spreads when bounce from 3170 pivot, used as risk off if 3170 is broken to downside)
  
• big psych level: 3000
• Technically Bottom Range: 2950
  

AMZN Trading Rules:

Trade level to level if intraday trades
Trade against major levels for larger swings
Look left on hourly timeframe for recent local S/R levels or S/D zones
to confirm/update levels, respect SwingArms and AvgDailyRange local levels intraday

Never swing naked AMZN weeklies, if you want to hold overnight make it a spread
Only can swing AMZN against major levels, and go at least a week out to give yourself some time

Can use OTM options to bring down cost if scalping intraday
but be aware of opening drive, lunch time reversal, power hour,
all have different effects on option's price with the big changes in IV and theta decay

Best to use spreads to lower cost and volatility risk
Earnings makes AMZN premium more funky than usual so strategies may work differently around earnings week

I prefer to play long side by either doing a call debit spread for trend swings and OTM put credit spreads for reversals on support bounces
(choose strike by below major support for PCS and max up to major resistance for CCS)

For short side I don't typically like to swing short for a long time, so usually will only fade rejection of resistance on intraday/major levels
Will prefer a put debit spread if I really want to go swing short from major resist (rarely) over selling calls as AMZN can make some crazy moves

Take profit on credit spreads usually around 30%, 50% and 90% don't need to let it expire
Best day to collect premium on AMZN is Theta Thurs, OTM options burn heavily between Thurs and Fri + weekend typically on AMZN

Preferred Indicators:
MashumeHullTV : Trend Strength
QQEMoMoTV : Momentum
SwingArms : S/R Levels
AvgDailyRange : S/D Zones
VolumeProfile : VPA

8 ต.ค. 2021

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Use MashumeHullTV and QQEMoMoTV to get a hint about direction and strength of trend as it comes into key AMZN levels listed above or local levels with the help of SwingArms and AvgDailyRange, combine this with VPA and tape reading to get a further edge

I usually use Hourly, 15 min and Daily timeframes to trade and find local levels
Typically AMZN contracts are relatively expensive on Monday, Tuesday and relatively cheap on Thursday, Fridays

Play Calls at Support
Play Puts at Resistance
Sell into Strength (good idea to preload your orders and place them above the ask so people slap the ask as you sell into Strength on your S/R levels)
Sit on hands if there is no trade on choppy days, can trade the same setup almost every week (has been in the same range all year haha), so no need to feel FOMO if you miss a trade

If you miss the Opening Drive play on a Trend day, you can look for a small pullback on strong uptrend to VWAP or MA/Support for entry and continuation

Lunch time reversals (my bread and butter play) lower volume heading into lunch time while also approaching key resistance or support, can look to play the other direction for a scalp if volume picks up again after lunch on a trend change, options cheaper during lunch time compared to the morning

Lotto Fridays, can sometimes find extremely cheap discounted lotto contracts on 0 days <$2 around 2 hours before the closing bell EOD Friday, which may run a lot (or dump a lot) on spikes

9 ต.ค. 2021

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Example of AMZN trade using levels on both long side and short side
i.imgur.com/yLP29cZ.png