USDTHB Awaits ISM and Fed SignalsMarket Analysis: Today, keep a close eye on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 21:00, which is expected to rise to 53.3 from 52.7, reflecting continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. A better-than-expected reading will likely strengthen the US dollar, as the market may scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Additionally, the speech by Fed Governor Waller at 19:30 will be another key factor; a hawkish stance could push USDTHB higher. However, liquidity in Asian markets may be thinner than usual due to market holidays in Thailand and several countries in the region.
Technical Outlook: The overall picture on the 4-hour timeframe (4H) shows sideways movement. In the short term, the price has rebounded back above the EMA line following buying pressure around 32.50. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed up and the Histogram is recovering, reflecting returning buy momentum. The RSI is also trending upward above the midpoint, supporting the chance for USDTHB to retest the resistance zone at 32.59 – 32.62. Furthermore, the Thai stock market is closed today, which may thin out Baht liquidity, but the main drivers for USDTHB remain US economic data and the direction of the US dollar.
Risk Factors : Despite the short-term recovery, the broader picture remains in a downtrend as the price continues to trade below the EMA line and the RSI stays below 50, indicating that buying pressure is not yet strong enough. If selling pressure returns, there is a possibility that USDTHB could pull back to retest the support zone at 32.50 – 32.48.
Support Level : 32.50 – 32.48
Target : 32.59 – 32.62
Stop Loss : 32.47
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