Retail Sales v Inflation YoYAre high retail sales increases really positive if the inflation rate is higher?
This year over year indicator of retail sales versus inflation levels can be placed in concert with any security to determine how symbols trade when inflation or retail sales are higher. A green histogram is when retail sales are higher than the inflation rate on a year over year basis. Red indicates inflation is higher rate.
The indicator can work with any symbols to see divergences. Feel free to change the positive and negative symbols to run other comparisons.
Retailsales
Swing Stock designed for Monthly/Yearly Trading This is a strategy tester designed around the most important data from FRED - Federal Reserve Economic Data
As input data, we have:
// Personal Consumption Expenditures
// Real Retail and Food Services Sales
// Leading Index for the United States
// All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls
// Real Gross Domestic Product
// Gross Domestic Product
I adapted the long and short entry based on the GDP data, since they are most accurate in prediction compared to the rest.
However, feel free to test with other as well if you want.
For this test I compared previous GDP values, if they were higher than previous that represent a long signals, if they were smaller that represents a reversal=short signal.
From the tests performed we can see that GDP is highly accurate and overall as long as there is patience, profits are going to be make, sometimes even beat the index itself.
If you have any questions, let me know !
