Probability of Monday Rise After Friday Fall

23 มิ.ย. 2024

Purpose:
This indicator calculates the probability of a price rise on Monday following a fall on the preceding Friday. It marks Fridays on the chart and displays the count and probabilities of such occurrences over the last 500 bars (or a user-defined lookback period).

Inputs:

Lookback Period: The number of bars to look back for the analysis (default is 500).
Mark Fridays?: Option to mark Fridays on the chart.
Table Background Color: The background color of the results table.
Text Color: The color of the text in the results table.
Logic:

Initialization:
The script initializes counters for:

Fridays with a fall (bear bars).
Mondays with a rise (bull bars) following a Friday fall.
Mondays with a fall (bear bars) following a Friday fall.
Definitions:

isFriday(): Checks if a bar is a Friday.
isMonday(): Checks if a bar is a Monday.
Data Analysis:
The script iterates over the last 500 bars (or the user-defined lookback period) to:

Identify Fridays with a fall (bear bars).
Check the next bar to see if it is a Monday and if it follows a Friday fall. If so, it checks whether the Monday is a rise (bull bar) or a fall (bear bar) and increments the corresponding counter.
Calculating Probabilities:

Probability of Monday Rise after Friday Fall: The ratio of Mondays with a rise following a Friday fall to the total number of Friday falls, expressed as a percentage.
Probability of Monday Fall after Friday Fall: The ratio of Mondays with a fall following a Friday fall to the total number of Friday falls, expressed as a percentage.
Displaying Results:
The results are displayed in a table at the top right corner of the chart, showing:

The count of Fridays with a fall.
The count and probability of Mondays with a rise following a Friday fall.
The count and probability of Mondays with a fall following a Friday fall.
Marking Fridays:
Optionally, the script marks Fridays on the chart with a triangle below the bar.