Kurtrillion Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator

เมื่อวาน

The Pi-Cycle Top and Bottom Indicator is a popular technical analysis tool designed to identify Bitcoin’s major market cycle peaks (tops) and troughs (bottoms). It is called “Pi-Cycle” because one of its moving‐average ratios (350 / 111 ≈ 3.153) happens to be close to the number π (3.14159...). While no indicator can perfectly predict price movements, the Pi-Cycle models have historically shown uncanny timing around Bitcoin’s cyclical highs and lows.

Pi-Cycle Top Indicator
Key Components:

111-Day Moving Average (MA)
350-Day Moving Average (MA) × 2
How It Works:

Plot both the 111-day MA and (350-day MA × 2) on a Bitcoin price chart.
The indicator flashes a potential market cycle top signal when the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA × 2.
Why “Pi”?

The ratio of 350 to 111 is roughly 3.153, close to the mathematical constant π (3.14159).
The original idea was that this near-π ratio appeared to coincide with market peaks in previous cycles.
Historical Performance:

The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator has historically called or come very close to calling several Bitcoin cycle tops:
April 2013 top
December 2013 top
December 2017 top
April 2021 top
It has sometimes signaled a top within a few days of the actual peak, though—as with any model—subsequent market conditions can deviate from historical patterns.
Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator
Key Components (common version):

471-Day Moving Average (MA)
150-Day Moving Average (MA) (sometimes an EMA) multiplied by a constant factor (e.g., 0.745)
(Note: Variations exist. The constants and exact lengths can differ depending on who implements the model.)

How It Works:

Plot the 471-day MA and another moving average (often the 150-day MA or 150-day EMA) scaled by a specific factor (e.g., 0.745).
A potential bottom signal triggers when the scaled 150-day line crosses below (or above, depending on convention) the 471-day MA.
Historical Performance:

The Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator has, in some form, identified or come close to several historical bear-market lows.
As with the Top Indicator, the Bottom Indicator is not perfect and can lag or lead actual bottom prices.