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US Recession Monitor [DIGGERDOG]
US Recession Monitor [DIGGERDOG]
This **US Recession Monitor** is designed to provide a real-time signal for detecting potential recessions in the US economy by combining two powerful indicators: the **Yield Curve Inversion** (US02Y - US10Y) and the **Sahm Rule**.
- **Yield Curve Inversion**: Historically, an inverted yield curve, where the 2-year Treasury yield is higher than the 10-year yield, has been a reliable predictor of recessions. This monitor tracks the inversion and signals when the curve flips negative.
- **Sahm Rule**: The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month average US unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more above its lowest point in the previous 12 months, signaling significant stress in the labor market—a strong recession indicator.
Key Features:
- **Customizable Weighting**: You can assign different weights to the yield curve inversion and the Sahm Rule to reflect the importance you place on each indicator.
- **Offset Option**: Shift the plot forward or backward using the offset input for comparative analysis.
- **Visual Alerts**: The monitor changes the background to red when either the yield curve or the Sahm Rule signals recession risk, providing clear and easy-to-spot alerts.
How to Use:
The monitor outputs a composite score between **0 and 100**, with values above **50** indicating a heightened risk of recession. Adjust the weights to fit your economic perspective or portfolio strategy and monitor the chart for signs of increasing economic risk.
This tool is ideal for traders, investors, or economists looking to monitor key recession indicators in real-time and adjust their strategies accordingly.
This **US Recession Monitor** is designed to provide a real-time signal for detecting potential recessions in the US economy by combining two powerful indicators: the **Yield Curve Inversion** (US02Y - US10Y) and the **Sahm Rule**.
- **Yield Curve Inversion**: Historically, an inverted yield curve, where the 2-year Treasury yield is higher than the 10-year yield, has been a reliable predictor of recessions. This monitor tracks the inversion and signals when the curve flips negative.
- **Sahm Rule**: The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month average US unemployment rate rises by 0.50% or more above its lowest point in the previous 12 months, signaling significant stress in the labor market—a strong recession indicator.
Key Features:
- **Customizable Weighting**: You can assign different weights to the yield curve inversion and the Sahm Rule to reflect the importance you place on each indicator.
- **Offset Option**: Shift the plot forward or backward using the offset input for comparative analysis.
- **Visual Alerts**: The monitor changes the background to red when either the yield curve or the Sahm Rule signals recession risk, providing clear and easy-to-spot alerts.
How to Use:
The monitor outputs a composite score between **0 and 100**, with values above **50** indicating a heightened risk of recession. Adjust the weights to fit your economic perspective or portfolio strategy and monitor the chart for signs of increasing economic risk.
This tool is ideal for traders, investors, or economists looking to monitor key recession indicators in real-time and adjust their strategies accordingly.
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