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careful -XRP/USDT

ที่อัปเดต:

this is an interesting one, that doesn't look impulsive to me its all 3's , so i think its a B wave that will lead to a lower low. its a long for now but id keep a close eye up near that target and take some profit if it starts to roll over

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slight change to the original ide - i think a double top

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possibly goes a bit higher cos everyone will jump on but i dont think itll go proper on one, itll just wick and come back down

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might get stacked abc's so that would count as A in that scenario, still looks corrective to me

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that kinda thing

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its possible its in some kind of fractal of that bit of markeet structure - but where exactly in all of that is hard to tell, but anyway its got at least the potential to get up there somewhere,

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if we take the view that the markets going up - impulsive - then this must be going down -impulsive so if we are looking for a 5 wave down move on this, then that must be the 1-2, in which case a 32% dump on usdtd, which i think does make that fractal play more likely

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i think theres a 5 wave in there so poss we get an abc here back to the golden pocket -618 , - cos thats what we had on the minor 1 below

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it could potentially just break up from here to the 5.618 - on a big dxy move down. but i dont see a c waveat the top there , its 12345, a so far to my eyes

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soz that 2 was meant to be there, not where i had it above

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if we assume its an impulsive move and not corrective as i thought at first then a move up off of that minor wave would put it there somewhere, in that overhead resistance, so yeh, can buy that

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its in the rough area of that fractal play so adds a bit of weight to that idea

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so that could either be 1-2 of 5 - if it comes back to a higher low - or corrective like i thought if its a lower low, - id imagine a move that size would be market wide - maybe dxy trying to come back , smashes everything back down again- kinda fits cos a lot of alts are on 3 waves, so can come all the way back to the top of 1 without breaking the count

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full count for this minor wave - that is some ugly shit, but its a 5 wave so

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its possible we get some sort of corrective move here - the minor 1 threw up a B wave that tagged the 2.618 of itself, i think itll be dependent on what the dollar does here as to whether we get something parabolic - or something more corrective like what we had off of the top of the minor one- circled

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there is fib confluence off of these little micros up into that area

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looks like a 535-abc corrective move - same as the on the minor 1 , it went quite deep on the c wave on the minor 1, but i feel it could hold above the wavetop here and break up, both outcomes are possible

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it could be like that and we only have an A here or...

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or more like that, but either way theresca 5 wave move up off of the floor and now the makings or poss the end of a corrective move , - so looking pretty good

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third poss is that its only halfway though the corrective move - since below it tagged the 2.618 of itself, - sometimes - not always but sometimes it will tag the same level which it hasnt done yet

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with these fractal ideas, youre not looking for the exact same thing - youre looking for something akin to - ie if you have a B wave off the top of a micro 1-2 on a 1 min chart ,that then does a 345 and becomes impulsive, then the likelihood of getting something similar at the top of the 5 wave increases

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i mean you can see it right there the micro 1-2 had an abc that went above the wave top, now that behaviour has just repeated at the top of this wave, the same12345-abc structure, just have to be on the lookout for all possibilities like we might only be half way through it etc

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of course you have to assume that theres a 12345 within the very first up move that you cant see you could go down to 1 second time frames to check that but it would be like trying to find the higgs boson , eventually it would get so small that you couldnt see it so would still have to make an educated guess on if its a 5 wave or not

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its just a different way of looking at market structure - its no golden egg, but it can present small clues which can be helpful in your overall trading strategy

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so many traders rely on indicators but ignore the actual structure, as soon as you put 2 lines on a chart thats where your focus is gonna be, the structure has a lot more to offer if you take some time to really study it

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like maybe you use a macd/rsi strategy, well these indicators are telling something about current market structure - so why not just look at the structure direct right? i mean its right there, might as well have a little looksy, its like at christmas trying to guess what the present is thats fully wrapped, - just unwrap the thing and look, and then you'lll know what it is

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like here for instance - there is similarity there- does that mean it could repeat the next part of that pattern - No definitely 100% not - but it might - write that down in your copy books, what does your strategy say does that say a break up? etc etc

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somaybe your strategy says yes due a break up, - well now you have 2 reasons tomake a bet, not jut 1

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so in this case it is starting to break up, maybe to somebody else that was a bb breakout trade, but the point is its another tool in your confirmation box

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now we have a move very similar to this, what will happen next, lets see

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we have a wick there that we didnt have at the bottom so we have to disregard this when considering the similarities of the next part of the pattern arrowed green

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and now we just need that and can begin to start leaning toward yes this is impulsive at this time frame

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it could still be impulsive/corrective as in part of a 535 up, but by careful charting that you can normally make some kind of call on it thats a bit more than just a guess

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and you' ll often find that on the occasions that they break the other way the answers will be up there somewhere

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all of those parabolic crypto charts youve seen, they were all born here right on the 1 minute time frame . food for thought

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now its begining to look more like this, youll find that there will come a point where both ideas cant be in agreement often youll see the 1 min candles bunch up at this point and lots of volume as it tries to find a direction, and then it will choose and 9 times out of ten follw the pattern more or less

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if you look closely theresa very subtle difference between the candles in the circle and the candles on the right, tho ones on the right are slightly more curvy, less spikey - ive noticed over time that this means a fair move is coming either up or down

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most likely outcome is somewhere thee now we had 5 up - we had the abc up that was in the tea leaves and now looks like 535 down - thus far its playing out exactly as the micro 1 did, with the only diffence that it didnt tag the 2.618 but as i said earlier something akin to

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anyway a few things ive found there along the way spending way too much time immersed in charts, good luck im afk for a while i need cat food - imagine a cat that eats more than a human but never ever gets any bigger.. even tho it sleeps 22 hours a day,

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an interesting fact about market structure is that every move it makes will be an inversion of the previous move it made in the opposite direction- we can never know the form it might take , thats the great mystery that we strive for , but it will always be an inversion no matter the market-asset-time frame, what do i mean by that, - all ive done in the chart is clone the very first bit of structure, then clone then invert etc changing the colourr each time you can see some are tiny some are huge, but its always always an inversion of a previous move

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you cant trade it because you cant see into the future and you definitely cant trade it with leverage lol - speaking from experience, its just interesting

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i get a fair amount of stick on here for pointing out the fractal nature of market structure, i go to this analogy, imagine a fat kid with small hands, all hes ever wanted to do is play guitar, but hes a small fat kid with small fat hands he goes along with how all the books say it should be done, but a fat kid with small hands cant do an 8 fret stretch , sooner or later if he wants to follow that passion, hes gonna have to throw those books in the bin and find a new technique to achieve the same sort of thing. overcoming your limitations goes a long way in trading i think , like gann charts might be the best thing in the world but thats not gonna help you if you get a 4 hour migraine every time you look at one, we've all got different skills, if you cant get your head around one thing , look at something else, theres no right or wrong way to do this imo , eventually that fit kid grew up to be bb king or jimi hendrix, overcame the limitations invented new techniques , for some its all been solved for others theres always something new to learn always another angle to look at , i definitely fall into the latter, to me its just a big fat puzzle that needs solving ,

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deeper i think, down there somewhere

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might push up a bit more first tho

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i think this will chase that overhead resistance - hence

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nope, changed my mind

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so could still be in an abc up like below that tags the 2.618, then comes back

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that kinda thing

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looks like usdt.d is gonna have a crack at that oh resistance, but i dunno i think this might just keep creeping up and then do its correction on the 2.618

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i mean it could break down -usdtd, but right now it 5 up and a higher low so could easily be a 535 to the upside

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looks like a corrective move on btc, so could break down here somewhere

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anyway, im done here for now, ive spammed your inboxes enough for now, hope ive at least made a few of you get more into market structure, hope these recent calls go well but i probably wont be updating them much from here, not trying to achieve anything here on trading view other than share a few thoughts and some stuff ive found along the way , and i dont like the pressure of making calls much not because i dont like bein wrong, its just the thought that someone out there with not much money might be following and then its a bullshit call. feels bad man, anyway . later, godd luck

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since this has had a few views i just wanna give a shout out to another trader on here , without his charts and his take on fib, i probably would of got bored and taken up Morris Dancing. if im unsure of a count, hes my go to guy- thekevin

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hasnt posted in a while but all the charts are still there, worth a butchers

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poss into the minors of three now, but i think btc needs to come back a bit, so watching, waiting

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thinking we might get some 382 action on this , could be like red or more like white , but could potentially pull the price of xrp back a bit so that what looks like it could be the minors of three right now ends up being the b of an abc down so just a bit of caution here

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that kinda thing

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wasnt gonna do any more updates on this cos i was off somewhere today, but the weathers a bit shite, so will probs keep my eye on it for a bit, im only looking at this cos its tough for me, just a bit of practice really , im not on it so can be hard to stay interested

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never anything obvious with this, give me a micro cap any day, this chart looks like an explosion in a mattress factory

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i mean look at this shit lmao - you trade structure you say? nods head slowly - laughs quite a lot inside.

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tradingview.com/x/9El9TjXW/, tricky, cos on the one hand i can count 5 in therewith decent enough fib confluence and on the 5th still got the confluence, but normally id wanna see 4.618 , but hasnt tagged yet and the rsi looks like its starting to struggle a bit,

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thinking maybe that, got some evidence of this count on other alts , so could be topping ot a 1 wave here, but because this on my larger count woulkd be the 5th then might not go that deep becuse a bit more confidence up here than say 20k on the way up, where everyone is still not sure if its a by or a sell

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on the flip side theres this - which could easy break up into a C wave, so i reckon for now thats a decent enough take on it, lets see what it does next, its just we all know btc sneezes and everything takes a dump

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when in doubt-zoom out, - i mean there's a few reasons there to be expecting a bit of reverse action

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all in all this is probs still my fav outcome right at this minute in time

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if we get that, and a higher low, then i think its a long from there to like 1.40 maybe 1.50

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bit higher actually 1.80 and a bit of madness, probs can push it to 2 dollars

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right im done on this for now, if im able, ill take a look later and see how i did. if im wrong oh well, this is a difficult chart for me, so i wont cry or anything

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and just to say ive turned all notifications off, so if i dont reply sorry, lot of folk get pissed off cos i wont conform to their ideas about how to do this shit, im not here to tell anybody how to suck eggs, theres no right or wrong way to any of this, and anybody that claims their way is the best way is full of shit, so bring the hate, im not gonna see it anyway, i didnt listen to the experts im not gonna listen to graduates from the royal school of trust me bro, ta ta for now

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A fractal is a never-ending pattern. Fractals are infinitely complex patterns that are self-similar across different scales. They are created by repeating a simple process over and over in an ongoing feedback loop.

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now go and take any bit of structure from any market at any time scale from a high to a low and invert it, - then do it again. its not hard because its a bit fractal - its the literal definition of fractal, ie when you start pulling it about it all looks the same

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you can never know the form ahead of time- you cant see into the future so have no idea if the inversion is gonna be a 2% move or a 50% move, but that doesnt change the fact that you can make up any chart by repeating a simple process over and over , and that is the literal definition of fractal

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and why wouldnt it be? look at astro physics biology, rock formations, lightning sea shells- its everywhere , - we live in a fractal universe . laws are laws

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why do you think your fib tool works?

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The golden ratio, also known as the golden number, golden proportion, or the divine proportion, is a ratio between two numbers that equals approximately 1.618. Usually written as the Greek letter phi, it is strongly associated with the Fibonacci sequence, a series of numbers wherein each number is added to the last.

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any other conclusion would be ...illogical

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first spock was the best spock

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A feedback loop is a process in which the outputs of a system are circled back and used as inputs.

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all looking at the same charts, plotting the same lines using fib to guide you, hmmmm..... have to have a little think about that

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every time you make a call, you are referencing the structure in some way if youre doing ta, 99% of the time, and then you're looking at your indicators - which also reference the structure in some way- and then you make a decision, doesnt matter if you trade patterns, bb/rsi some trading bot youre always gonna be referencing the existing structure in some way

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its just a fractal pattern created by a feedback loop, - the chart is the output you/we are the circled back inputs

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in my humble opinion, if you wanna trash my calls fine im not perfect shock, its hard shit to fathom, but if youre gonna tell me no this isnt fractal, have a good think. this is just an opinion, but ive delved pretty deep, i cant draw any other conclusion from my journey down fractal lane

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self-similar across different scales

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poss a dump on dji which causes dollar to rise which causes a crypto pull back

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dji is done imo - proper done, and not being a trader i have no idea how that is gonna shake things up- my feeble brain says selling large amounts of dji is the same as buying fiat, but that might be way off, i just going by what im seeing in structure nothing else

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i know thats a bold statement- but everyone has normalcy bias- the titanic is un f*****g sinkable right? but i look at the charts and and i look at the world and think hmmmm

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i mean look at that dji chart - really? go look at it on a 1 month andv then right after go and look at any shit coin that got rugged - it just looks like a micro cap shit coin chart,

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everyones in, the whole worlds in, even your dopey mate down the pub's in trading apple on his iphone , if your dopey mate down the pub is buying apple on his iphone then im walking the other way

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i mean look at the amount of propaganda we are now bombarded with on a daily basis- how many of us think that what we are getting spoon fed is anywhere near the truth? you think that doesnt have an effect on how you see the world? the decisions you make? i dont do tv, i dont do social media - apart from this cos i have an interest and its better than gaming, i dont read newspapers, magazines i dont watch news at all ever, to me its a shit film with a third rate cast and a tired plot, i left the theatre decades ago, and i can tell you that it definitely has an affect, turn all that shit off and youll be happier fo rit trust me on that

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you cant make good decisions if all the data youre getting is moody, people can lie, media can lie politicians can lie- but the charts, not so much

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im looking atthis kind of area for now, and then see what happens if/when it gets there

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i mean isnt it obvious you have a system where everyone makes calls essentially on existing structure, and then feeds data back into that system in the form of a buy or a sell - this is a feed back loop, the same as when youve got the gain on your amp cranked all the way up and then you stand too close, make those harmonics really scream out

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not convinced yet, i wanna see what happens when dji opens

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so heres my thory - we hit the 4.618-dji opens dumps, dollar pushes up cos of peeps selling dji back into fiat, and this gets twatted back down there somewhere

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excuse typos, ive got a 10 year old keyboar with all the characters worn off im going on muscle memory

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which fits the original idea that this is in a corrective that tags the 2.618, in theory it can now go back to there and not break the count, any deeper than that low on the left and this is just an X wave

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no idea on timing , i know sweet fa about macro economics maybe there will be an overlap maybe it will take a day or 2- no idea i just do structure, no idea whats going on out there in the world cos i dont follow any of it, its all a production to me. i focus on the charts , thats it

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you get to hear about the big events via people, and thats plenty enough info for me. everything else is just bum steers all the way,

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self-similar across different scales.

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and the band played on....

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thanks for watching. im done now , shits starting to get real here and i need to focus on other stuff. stay safe out there and good luck

Spocks-Beard

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