GOLD → Pending FOMC & FED. Price may fall even lower

13 ธ.ค. 2023

XAUUSD is in consolidation phase and it is likely to last until 19:00 GMT. The market is waiting for news and no strong movements in one or the other direction should be expected before the time.



The premise is that the dollar will strengthen:

• Friday's NFP continues to be bullish for the DXY (pattern to break resistance is forming)
  
• PPI is expected to be bullish
  
• Overall the data over the past few days will not allow Powell to cut the rate.
  
• Inflation is still strong to change policy.
  

Against this backdrop, gold may test one of the local highs: 1990, 1996, 2000 before falling further
Overall, from a technical point of view, there is still a huge buying imbalance in the gold market, the market maker can take the price much lower to balance the situation and at the moment the negative fundamental background is contributing to this.

Support levels: 1976,2
Resistance levels: 1984.3, 1990, 1996

The price continues to update the lows and this indicates the mood of the market. The fundamental background for gold is unfavorable and the decline may continue. The situation may change if today's news and its actual data are not extremely opposite to expectations

Regards R. Linda!

13 ธ.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The first news for today came out worse than expected, but fundamentally better than last period

FED & FOMC ahead

now the dollar continues to consolidate and gather potential. Gold is testing range resistance and forming a pullback but intra-range trading continues

13 ธ.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

There's news from FED & FOMC. The basic gist:
The Fed left the rate unchanged at 5.5%
Powell gave a strong signal that the Fed has likely already ended the rate hike cycle stating that he believes it is unlikely that the Fed will continue to raise rates and that the start of a rate cut is now on the table.
Powell left the option of further rate hikes if the U.S. economy grows above trend.

So here goes. In fact, the market has been left with the same data. The rate is 5.50%, inflation is in the neighborhood of 3.1%. NOTHING HAS CHANGED

People on empty words and rumors, when before the actual changes in key data is still a few months and everyone understands about it, reacts as abnormal. Apparently there was an internal psychological hunger on the background of long waiting for any hints or actions.

But I have already said many times - this is news. And that is the problem with this nuance as a trading instrument. You do not know beforehand how the market will behave even on predictable things.