Gold - The big picture

Scenario 1:
Breakout above 1,265 USD and bull run towards 1,300 USD.
Then consolidation between 200 MA and 1,300 USD

Scenario 2:
Consolidation around the 200MA until early summer.
Then breakout.

Scenario 3:
Another deep pullback within the triangle.
Breakout above 1,265 USD later in the summer.