Recession in the UK, roller coaster of gold, US inflation

13 ส.ค. 2020

The main news of the yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of UK GDP data for the 2-nd quarter. As expected, they not only confirmed the fact of the transition of the British economy into a state of recession, but also turned out to be one of the worst among developed countries and Europe in particular. So, the recommendation to sell the pound primarily against the euro remains relevant.

Another important statistical information released yesterday was the data on consumer inflation in the US. The data came out above forecasts. In general, the intensification of inflationary processes may force the FED to tighten monetary policy. This can have an extremely negative impact on the US stock market (price bubbles will start to burst). However, here and now nothing has changed. What was shown by the dynamics of the dollar, which did not even try to grow on these data.

Interesting things continued to happen in the gold market yesterday. After the sale on Tuesday, on Wednesday, the asset was recovering and, in general, there is nothing strange in this, because the global fundamental background did not change and what happened on Tuesday was a classic overreaction followed by a contrarian movement the next day.

Republicans and Democrats continue to seek a compromise and can’t find it.

The oil market received another formal reason for growth (crude oil stocks in the United States fell by -4.512 million barrels against the forecast of a decline of -2.523 million barrels, as well as a significant decrease a week earlier - by -7.373 million barrels), but most likely it will again be ignored. as it has been for several weeks in a row. In general, a big movement is clearly brewing in the oil market, but there are not enough tectonic shifts in the fundamental background.

In terms of macroeconomic statistics, this day is interesting primarily with jobless claims data in the United States.