Bitcoin Miners and Bitcoin oversold together

1 ส.ค.

Not surprising that they are oversold together. There's lots of ways to play this. I already have exposure to the miners in IREN so I'm not gonna add to that - I've got a full plate of tickers I'm waiting to be overbought. Could've sold 2 early in the day today, but I wait until the close to make buy/sell calls.

Anyway, the miners will be under pressure as long as bitcoin is, so if you can pick the moment bitcoin will reverse, you're better than I am. Oversold = buy and history says eventually it will be profitable. The price here is near the June 11 high that I'll call support here but I wouldn't call it firm support.

I like the ETF here simply because several miners are reporting earnings, so the diversification is safer, imo. Again, if you can pick which miners will fly or crash on earnings, you're better than I am and I wanted more juice, going with indiviual miners is the way to go. RIOT, MARA, CIFR are ones off the top of my head that are currently oversold. IREN and CLSK are not yet, but one more day of this shenanigans and they will be too.

Downside = not as big of a move with the ETF and having to hold it longer brings exposure to fees. 0.75%/yr isn't too bad though.

As always, this is not investment advice. Just one man's opinion. DYOR.

1 ส.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I'm not saying I CAUSED bitcoin and the miners to rally 3% in the two hours since I posted this idea...but they did. 🔮🧙🪄

5 ส.ค.

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I forgot to update this on Friday, so in the interests of honesty I'd have to say that IF I was trading this (I'm not IRL) I'd have added a lot on Friday at the close at 18.50 and another today at the close at 17.26.

27 ส.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

I forgot about this idea. Would have sold lots 2 and 3 on 8/19 at 18.56 at the close.

Lot 2 gain = +0.3%
Lot 3 gain = +7.5%

Original lot (20.01) still remains.

13 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

If anyone is following this, I apologize. It wasn't a real trade so it gets lost in the shuffle.
I'd have added 3 lots since the last update:
9/3 @ 15.86
9/4 @ 15.76
9/6 @ 14.95
still would be holding the original 20.01 lot as well

17 ก.ย.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Would have sold all 3 of the most recent lots today at the close for 17.55 each
+10.7% in 10d
+11.4% in 9d
+17.3% in 7d

Still holding lot 1

26 ก.ย.

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

Original lot was sold at the close because WGMI is now overbought and the lot is (barely) profitable. Gain on the lot was .05% - better than a loss. Given that during the course of the trade, the max drawdown on this lot was over 25%, I'm very happy with that .05% gain.
Since I'm gonna do it anyway for my records, I'll summarize the results of the trade below. For a stock that during the period I traded it went up 0.05%, I'm VERY happy with the returns I got on my lots, even if the trade did take longer to close than I'd like. Not every trade is an instant winner. Sometimes patience is required. Since I didn't actually trade this with real money, though, it's hard to get uptight over it.

26 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Hypothetical trade result (for my records)

Wins - 6 Losses - 0

+.05% in 39 trading days
+0.3% in 11d
+7.5% in 10d
+10.7% in 10d
+11.4% in 9d
+17.3% in 7d

Average gain per lot traded = +7.9%
Avg holding period per lot = 14.3 trading days
Average gain per lot per day held = 0.55%
Per lot per day held annualized return = +139%