0001. Hoggish Play - Short UVXY

3 มิ.ย. 2020

As the name implies, I prefer to keep Hoggish Plays to myself, since they end up paying most of my living expenses.

But, there is no need to keep this one to myself, so buy Puts for 6/19 at the money or out the money. Either works.

Not going to add much more commentary, since it's a Hoggish Play.

GL

-Hoggish Pig

UVXY
VIX

3 มิ.ย. 2020

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Don't see this going anywhere but flat or down over the next two weeks. My Puts are pegged at 20 for 6/19.

Been actively trading this for years now. Most of my experience has been shorting it regularly on pre-virus S&P Friday fades.

While the back-end is complicated, just know that when futures contracts enter a state of "contango" from a state of "backwardation," the ETF expense ratio skyrockets and this thing perishes for some time.

I am probably going to enter September Put position tomorrow if it's another strong green day. If UVXY reverse-splits because the move down is so forceful, profits will be magnified due to the continued contango and downward bias thereafter.

If you joined me today, much respect. It's not an easy trade at all, but Hoggish ideas don't come around often. So, if you are in and new-ish to trading, I would take profits on the next 20% down move.

This move is gold and is also kind of rigged. Perfect for pigs and hogs alike. It's also the MOST efficient way to make money in any modern market in existence when correct, bearish and out-of-the-money.

That is not an exaggeration.

Hoggish.

4 มิ.ย. 2020

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Full Position In

5 มิ.ย. 2020

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While market makers are currently sh***ing themselves, this will snap today. Watch the last 10 minutes, will be the most abnormal price movement you've ever seen.

9 มิ.ย. 2020

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Can add here for a quick flip. This will not close anywhere near highs.

9 มิ.ย. 2020

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In fact, it will likely close red. This is probably it's "last stand" on an oversold dead cat bounce. Yesterday was the least volatile day that I've seen in months. When it doesn't make sense, means it's over soon.

10 มิ.ย. 2020

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Falling asleep waiting for this to capitulate, but also currently own the right to sell about half the entire daily float if I had the capital to do so. It's going down even if it temporarily pops. Thus, unless the market changes form or direction in the next two days, no reason to think this will hold up at 30+ for much longer.

13 มิ.ย. 2020

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Nothing has changed, except that I can extend the contract term out a month with more downside to work with at the same price.

Also, like late this afternoon, if this thing is ever looking like it's about to close at the HOD while the market is flat/slightly green, it is wise to catch a short within the longer-term play.

Doing this is a great way to reward yourself while sticking through times of illogical price action, as it pertains to our broken VIX and it's even more broken derivatives.

16 มิ.ย. 2020

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Would hammer puts into close right now.

23 มิ.ย. 2020

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I mean, TVIX just got delisted so not really sure what to say.

The play was so hoggish that it broke the underlying security.

If you have puts, would probably hold them until tomorrow because the TVIX news will surely lead to mass selloff. The only risk is an announcement delisting it, which may or may not nullify all contracts.

Sorry about this one - did not play out in typical hoggish fashion.