Shorting oil to 42

25 ส.ค. 2016

Bullish bets haven't abated over the last two weeks, despite a 6% decline in the front month contract and a new YTD low in oil volatility. Looking to collect some vol carry and continued downside price drift via Sept puts 45 puts. I see room for a decline down to the 76.4 fib retracement at 41.49. Will look to roll down the 45s to 42s - slightly outside the current options implied 76% confidence interval, at 45.50.