Us Oil Breakout and Price Recovery

15 พ.ย. 2016

I have been tracking USOIL since the start of the downtrend looking for a reversal, and it looks like this might finally be it. Current price action is very similar to the last four major reversals in trends.
There was a shred of hope for those ridding out longs taken prior to the election last Wednesday, but that momentum quickly dissolved with the end of the week.
In hindsight, both the hiekin-ashi and candle charts showed a slowing of momentum after the announcement of the new POTUS.
Following a break in the Keltner channels my system generated a long signal at 42.4x, which, in hindsight, is a far better entry that the one I'm currently holding at 44.6x. So far the first target to watch for this potential breakout is the resistance at the 45.8x level where the price turned last week. Unless this resistance is surpassed with ease and significant volume, it is not unlikely that price might revisit weekly lows.
If all goes well and API/EIA data is on board, we may see 47.1x by weeks end.
Looking at past reversals, this price action is consistent with those that occurred in both August and September.
Furthermore COTS data shows that net long and short positions are at a similar level to those experienced two weeks before Algiers with managed money holding a fair chunk of the shorts, which is consistent with the information and distrust towards Opec that large funds such as Goldman-Sachs have been conveying in recent weeks.