USDX wave (A) up finishing - (B) correction soon

29 ก.ค. 2018

Im not bullish, bearish, or neutral. It all depends on what the timeline is.

Short term, bearish;
- 5 waves up complete,
- strong rejection of the bulls shown in long wicks up,
- I would call strong bearish divergence on daily RSI (several peaks show declining RSI peaks while price has been rising),
- A strong recent rally in USD.
indicates that a correction is expected. By my count this would be a wave B of (B) for <100% retracement of wave A - I arbitrarily chose a 0.618 retrace.

Medium term (couple of weeks time) bullish;
- wave C (of wave (B) assumed to reach 1:1 of wave A, although it may not reach that high,
- This is based on a B wave being comprised of a 5 (or 3) waves A, followed by 3 wave B, and (always) 5 wave C. This would mean 3 waves down is next on the sequence.

Medium - long (after the ABC sub-move has terminated finishing wave (B) and the wave (C) commences) strongly bearish;
- Wave (C) always comprises 5 wave where wave (A) also had 5 waves,
- Wave (A) was quite strong and I will be interested to see if wave (C) is as strong because it will mean a significant move down.

This analysis is 100% technical and includes no fundamental analysis. Let's see if it can stand on its own. I am not a FOREX trader and don't expect to become one. My trading is limited to cryptocurrency, crude, silver, and gold currently, although, I am keen to expand to other commodities. This is published for my own education.