Watch for the USDMXN breakout

The next days will be decisive for USDMXN now that NAFTA talks have officially begun. In the chart there are 4 relevant price levels (shown in bold green). And 2 short-term price levels (in thin red).

• If the price breaks the short-term resistance at 18.04 then we would likely see the price reaching 18.40 or even 19.28 if NAFTA negotiations don't favor Mexico.
  
• If the price breaks the short-term support at 17.48 then we may expect the price to reach the Pre-Trump support level at at 17.16.
  

Events that would favor the first scenario would be:

• A full withdrawal from the NAFTA deal.
  

While the second scenario would be more likely in the event of:

• A soft NAFTA "tweak".
  
• An increased feeling of a "Trump's failed agenda".
  
• An armed conflict between the US and North Korea.
  

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"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. " - Warren Buffett