USD/JPY 4H Analysis: Elliott Waves, SMC, and Fibonacci Levels

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USDJPY USD/JPY 4H Analysis: Elliott Waves, SMC, and Fibonacci Levels
1. Identify Trends using Dow Theory
Primary Trend: Downtrend

Lower Highs and Lower Lows: The chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows from mid-January onwards, indicating a downtrend.

2. Label Elliott Wave Structures
Impulse Waves (1-5):

Wave 1: From the top left to the first major low.

Wave 2: Retraces partially upwards.

Wave 3: Extends lower beyond Wave 1.

Wave 4: Corrects partially upwards again.

Wave 5: Completes the downward movement.

Corrective Waves (A-B-C):

Wave A: Moves downward following Wave 5.

Wave B: Retraces partially upwards.

Wave C: Continues downward to complete the correction.

Validation Using Fibonacci:

Fibonacci retracement levels used are 0.786 (155.959104), 0.705 (155.72712), 0.618 (155.477952), 0.5 (155.14), and 0.382 (154.802048).

3. Apply Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Liquidity Zones:

Highlighted Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and liquidity zones where the price is likely to react.

Break of Structure (BOS):

BOS identified, indicating points where the market structure has shifted.

Stop Hunts:

Sharp price movements beyond key levels suggest potential stop hunts.

4. Formulate Buy/Sell Strategies
Sell Strategy:
Entry: Consider entering a sell position around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (155.477952) where the price is likely to face resistance.
Take Profit (TP1): Set TP1 at the 0.5 Fibonacci level (155.14) for a conservative target.
Take Profit (TP2): Set TP2 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (154.802048) for an extended target.
Stop Loss (SL): Place SL above the 0.786 Fibonacci level (155.959104) to manage risk.
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This analysis integrates all indicators and levels on the chart, providing a clear and actionable trading strategy for traders. If you have any further questions or need more details, feel free to ask!

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