The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!
JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze.
Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates.
Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips.
Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed.
The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying.
I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date.
DO look to trade this.
BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs.
EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates.
Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips.
Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed.
The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying.
I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date.
DO look to trade this.
BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs.
EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
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