USDCAD: The BoC Effect

20 ม.ค. 2016

Fundamentally:
In addition to not lowering rates, the Bank of Canada was dovish. If they maintained rates and were hawkish, then I would probably take a slightly different stance.

But, so far, USDCAD is a short for me because the BoC maintained rates and did not lower them. In fact, the BoC mentioned that commodity prices were a problem for them. Lowering rates for now would hurt their economy. Also, they just had a presidential election; it is best to wait until there is an actual budget by the new presidential party to do anything.

I think that all expectations of a rate cut were burst. Now, people can hold it as an "investment" in the USD, or they can panic out. We shall see what unfolds.. hhmmm....

This was a good decision by the BoC. If oil does stabilize from here on out, this should help shorts gain momentum.

Technically:
Monthly: We are at key resistance.

Daily: 10 days of rallying with no end in sight. Those daily rejection candles may be signs of dissipation of the ride up:

intraday: Waitig for lower lows: