ISM PMI Long Term Chart - 04/08/23

The ISM currently stands at 46.3%, signaling a contraction.
Business activity is implying that rising interest rates and growing recession fears are starting to weigh on businesses. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period.

Frequentist's will tell you that the market tends to bottom six months after the ISM drops below 50.00.
In the chart, I've drawn a channel with fib standard deviations.

This will be a good one to save and track