Elliott Wave Analysis and Fibonacci Projections for US 100

17 ธ.ค. 2024

US100
The Elliott Wave Theory identifies 5 impulsive waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 corrective waves:

Impulse Waves (1-2-3-4-5): Main trend movement.
Corrective Waves (A-B-C): Countertrend correction.
2. Detailed Analysis of Observed Waves
Wave 1: Initial Upward Impulse
Definition: This is the first wave that initiates a new trend, driven by optimistic investors.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The bottom of Wave 1 is observed at 21,571.8, marking the trend’s starting point.
Wave 2: Correction of Wave 1
Definition: This wave corrects a portion of Wave 1, typically between 38.2% and 61.8% of Fibonacci retracements.
Interpretation: The correction does not breach the starting point of Wave 1.
Observation:
Wave 2's correction stays above the critical support.
Wave 3: Strongest Impulse Wave
Definition: This is typically the longest and strongest wave, often extending 1.618 times Wave 1.
Key Features:
It surpasses the high of Wave 1 and creates a significant trend move.
Key Level on Your Chart:
The peak of Wave 3 is at 22,133.4, confirming a strong upward move.
Wave 4: Intermediate Correction
Definition: Wave 4 corrects part of Wave 3 but does not overlap with Wave 1’s territory.
Typical Retracement: Between 23.6% and 50% of Wave 3 (Fibonacci levels).
Observation:
The low of Wave 4 is seen at 21,946.8, aligning with a retracement between 38.2% and 50%, indicating a moderate pullback.
Wave 5: Final Impulse Wave
Definition: This wave continues the trend but is usually weaker than Wave 3.
Projection:
Fibonacci extensions project Wave 5 to end around 0.618x or 1.0x of the distance between Wave 1 and Wave 3.
Key Level on Your Chart:
Wave 5 is projected to reach 22,400 (based on a 61.8% extension).
3. Fibonacci Levels and Wave Validation
Fibonacci Retracements:

Wave 2: Corrects 38.2%–61.8% of Wave 1.
Wave 4: Corrects 23.6%–50% of Wave 3.
Fibonacci Extensions:

Wave 3: Often extends 1.618x the length of Wave 1.
Wave 5: Projected at 0.618x or 1.0x the total move of Wave 1–3.
4. Validating the Elliott Wave Scenario
To ensure the waves on your chart follow the Elliott Wave principles:

Wave 2 does not retrace more than 100% of Wave 1.
Wave 3 is not the shortest of the three impulsive waves (1, 3, 5).
Wave 4 does not overlap the territory of Wave 1.
5. Observations and Projections
Based on your key levels:

Wave 3 successfully formed a strong impulse at 22,133.4.
Wave 4 retraced to 21,946.8, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels.
Wave 5 is projected to reach approximately 22,400, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
6. Recommendations
Monitor Fibonacci levels to confirm Wave 5's target near 22,400.
Use indicators like RSI or MACD to detect divergences, signaling potential Wave 5 exhaustion.
Validate Elliott Wave rules to avoid misinterpretations.

17 ธ.ค. 2024

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