Turkey: Technical perspective is long term bearish

4 ต.ค. 2015

(Analysis on demand)

Technical tools call for a brief relief rally based on the daily charts, leading to a massive selloff after a retest of 39.37.
This selloff can last way into 2016, but it's also possible to end abruply, considering the Turkish elections are in November.

The picture is turbulent on the fundamental side, with the global equities slide down dragging emerging markets down, I'd be biased to the short side.
It's interesting to note that the Turkish Lyra has formed a strong topping formation in the daily charts, and it might rally in the wake of a stock market crash and a weak dollar if we have continuation to the downside.
Agriculture being a major driving force, the fig, apricot, hazelnut, cherry and strawberry prices will affect the price more than the energy sector will overall.

See the related USDTRY idea for more information.

Regards,

Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX

20 ต.ค. 2015

บันทึกช่วยจำ

40.92 is an optimal short level.