Tesla this year, basic setup

4 พ.ค. 2017

This is my basic setup for Tesla, the stock is very interesting and I do have something to say here:

the fact that TSLA was keeping the stock above 300 for such a long period of time is strong signal of the future to come. Let's be honest here, it was show of muscles as Tesla is in the end of the day a tech company more than it is a (traditional) car company. It doesn't need to sell as many cars as F , GM or VOW3.DE the same way, apple didn't need to sell as many windows computers to become as big as it is. Another huge point here is, people love their Teslas. Branding is very tricky think to put value on and it is reflected in the stocks somewhat, but we won't see it the earning reports.

Last but not least, TSLA have always had, somewhat, bigger oscillation than other stocks (from those I look at). That said, the push above 300 was due to new factors, such as announced (new) products and the 5% equity sell to investors. I personally look for new levels back to 285, and the old resistant/ new support 265-ish. Going back to the oscillation point, usually it goes around 2 weeks up and 2 weeks down, this time it has been steady up for a whole month. This might suggest 3-4 weeks way down too.

There are not many companies, which are future proof. After all the R&D for model 3 is done, there are no significant spendings in the coming year. Very exciting stock.

I've long position since 256, but I'm looking for new trades and will use this idea to my strategy.


Wish ya happy (and safe) trading folks.

16 พ.ค. 2017

บันทึก

Manufacturing those (new) Tesla 3 is another big promise from Elon Musk, however we don't have clear view how that would happen. I can imagine that such stuff makes investors bit nervous and here are some of my thoughts:

The guys work is always been connecting digital and technology with the applications. He was software engineer and I been watching him back in a interview, explaining his views on the future of manufacturing, way before model 3. As far as I understood his vision is to draw a parallel from software developments kits, and application protocol interfaces, which are common methods for developers to create software based on existing system. In a way, he might start an interesting revolution, not just speed up the way of manufacturing his latest cars. The ubiquitous nature of his teams development could be doing much more inspiring work and spike new sort of digital fabric blueprint. Given that, of course they want to keep it secret as much as possible.

Going back to the real works, this first prototype of the fabric, which would be required might not be even close to revolutionary and just speed up the processes. No matter that, the nature of design and first-base-physics thinking would bring the best out of it, given the time. But what does that mean for the stock? Well, it's based on trust at the current moment and the level above 300 is still fragile. The guy has all his money in Tesla now, so he is all in. He got my trust for the moment and despite crashing few rockets, he did lend a rocket, on a moving platform-in-the-sea... Let's not forget that quite soon, the dude has the nature for making impossible stuff.

Holding long. I'm considering another buy.