11/4/24 - $tdc - another Q from the sidelines 4 me
11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
TDC
another Q from the sidelines 4 me
- in "theory" these guys can do >$300 mm of FCF on EV of mid 3's billion which is "great" yield.
- But... and probably with two T's...
- The market is simply having a tough time buying growth sub 10%, nevermind mid singles, and especially declining growth.
- While a quarter can change a lot, esp wrt guidance/ outlook etc. and that's an important caveat, in a week like this one where we have a 4-year catalyst which will probably create some wild waves, this stonk simply isn't a good R/R, layup or obvious to me (even the obvious plays in my portfolio aren't obvious ST!!)
- so i bid you good luck if you own this thing. i struggle to understand if i'd even buy a dip on a miss (probably not), and we've seen stuff that misses getting sent to Hades in a Burkin
- also the perma-bid from last quarter's big drop in a straightline fashion is hellasketch. this tells me a. someone knows it's worth buying (and i can't see this ^ per the above comments), or b. there's some weird MM stuff going on to find bids before they send it... again... lower. i don't want to guess. so i just watch.
V
TDCanother Q from the sidelines 4 me
- in "theory" these guys can do >$300 mm of FCF on EV of mid 3's billion which is "great" yield.
- But... and probably with two T's...
- The market is simply having a tough time buying growth sub 10%, nevermind mid singles, and especially declining growth.
- While a quarter can change a lot, esp wrt guidance/ outlook etc. and that's an important caveat, in a week like this one where we have a 4-year catalyst which will probably create some wild waves, this stonk simply isn't a good R/R, layup or obvious to me (even the obvious plays in my portfolio aren't obvious ST!!)
- so i bid you good luck if you own this thing. i struggle to understand if i'd even buy a dip on a miss (probably not), and we've seen stuff that misses getting sent to Hades in a Burkin
- also the perma-bid from last quarter's big drop in a straightline fashion is hellasketch. this tells me a. someone knows it's worth buying (and i can't see this ^ per the above comments), or b. there's some weird MM stuff going on to find bids before they send it... again... lower. i don't want to guess. so i just watch.
V
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