Downward bias in SPY

It looks like wave iii of 3 has completed. Today, we saw a countertrend wave "a" to $195. It's a bull trap. Wave "a" appears to be a zigzag. We may see a downward move to the yellow box and then another countertrend move back to around $195.50. If this plays out, wave v of 3 may target somewhere around $188.50. If this all occurs, it will not be a good market for bulls for the rest of the year.