There's A Setup For A Bounce

28 ต.ค. 2023

For fun, no idea what I'm doing.

Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes over the weekend into Monday.

Depending on what happens Sunday night going into Monday it's setting up for a bounce.

Bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Monday Oct 30. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea, it happened last year in June and September where it gapped up and I tossed the idea, but it still did rocket up :(. For the one a couple of weeks ago it didn't quite get there, but at the early part it was above my little green eclipse.

Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days? Bonus points if it just falls through the lower Bollinger, at which point I'll probably enter. It actually is currently under.

Short of a gap up there's a pretty good chance this set up actually is... well set up! The first time since Jan 2022!

From the low of Monday Oct 30 -

Let's Say

5% chance of ~+10% by Nov 2 (top yellow circle)

40% chance of +5.5% by Nov 2 (lower yellow circle)

60% chance of +5.5% by Nov 13 (right yellow circle)

Don't really think we will get +10% with how things are set up, but it does happen sometimes....

Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail.

You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.

30 ต.ค. 2023

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Alright, it did stay below the line today so I bought some calls around noon my time/2pm est.

Not the best time unfortunately, I was waiting to see if it would go back down, and it didn't, and then I had to go run an errand and just bought em before I left.

Based it off the low of the day at the time which ended up being the low of the day anyway, 412.22.

There was some weird chart hicup there for a while at ~408 which probably messed with some people's indicators that use daily low values.

So I guess the target is going to be 434.89 (412.22 + 5.5%).

My hesitancy kind of cost me there as I watched the price go from the 412s to the 415s, oh well.

2 พ.ย. 2023

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Man what a day. Was busy and away from the computer so I just kept on frantically looking at my phone.

My Nov 2 calls were on the cusp of gaining some major traction, sold them for 2x right around 2EST because I had the time and it's around that time the platform I use will exercise if ITM.

With about 20 minutes left in the trading day it might have been for the best as we are stuck in the 430s which is where I exited.

The previous post about

"My hesitancy kind of cost me there as I watched the price go from the 413s to the 415s, oh well."

That 2 point difference was basically a 10-15 bagger gone bye bye.

Still have some for Nov 17 (cause the Nov 13 strikes were weird)

3 พ.ย. 2023

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Okay I sold the Nov 17 calls for a five bagger.

Waited that last hour, watched it go down and down, was done with it when it was a little over 435.

Hit my target, almost according to what I thought, to be picky it was an extra day and boy if my Nov 2 calls were Nov 3 calls instead...

13 พ.ย. 2023

บันทึก

Last update,

This is Nov 13, but I got out Nov 3. Just posting to get the full picture because my latest date was Nov 13.

I had Nov 17 dated calls, got out early, unfortunately left some money on the table but, hey, profit is profit.