S&P 500 Preferred Short: Better Risk-Reward

Today I want to discuss about the bull and bear cases for S&P and introduce the fractal concept

Bull case:
Cup with a handle
uptrend can be considered 1-2-3 wave and recent downmove as 4th wave
it is a possibility because wave 4 is in wave 1's terrority, similar to the big downtrend. But this can also be considered a leading diagonal
downtrend sub-wave 5 ended on uptrend wave 1

Bear case:
Fractal
retracement % is very close
both retracements reached peak of wave 2 of same degree
Preferred Elliott Wave Counts
Risk-reward is better on the short side now
speed of upmove