The S&P 500 bull run has reached another unconfirmed peak

28 ก.ค. 2016

The FED leaves the rate unchanged and the Facebook earnings and many other earnings were good so the overall trend is very bullish, but there is a growing drag lower due to falling Oil prices and for example the China stock index had declined.below 3000 points. The Apple island top could also fizzle very fast and drag the DOW Industrial lower.

Unless the market breaks out higher before this week ends I stay bearish, because I'm usually emotionally too early with my trading ideas and not too late and my last bearish idea has still not played out, but is now showing early signs of being true. I had oil as risk factor already anticipated in my last chart, but forgot to mention it (see related ideas).

Scenario A "fast brief dip":
Short entry: 2180
Short target:2125

Scenario B: "bearish deep decline"
Short entry: 2160
Short target:2087

31 ก.ค. 2016

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UPDATE: 3 days later after publishing the chart.

While analyzing the largest company stocks (by market cap) in the US (and the world) using the new Tradingview screener function I noticed that many big company stocks have already fallen (in some cases a lot) lower. So maybe the downtrend potential of the S&P 500 index is already over while not being visible in the sideways range on the S&P 500 index itself. If true the S&P 500 rally might go even higher in August when the following stocks bounce back up higher (or even make new highs). In other words I'm much less bearish than I was 3 days ago when I created the chart before the last day of the month (July) had closed.

Here are the stocks to watch in August, if they find a bottom soon or continue the recent decline:

Exxon (US), peaked July 15:


Berkshire (US), peaked July 19


Amazon (US), peaked July 12


Johnson & Johnson (US), peaked July 20


GE (US), peaked July 20


AT&T (US), peaked July 5


Wells Fargo (US), peaked July 14


JP Morgan (US), peaked July 14


Wall Mart (US), peaked July 11


Verizon (US), peaked July 5


Procter & Gamble (US), peaked July 14


Pfizer (US), peaked July 15


Shell (non-US), peaked July 14


Novartis (non-US), peaked July 22


Alibaba (non-US), peaked July 21


Budweiser (non-US), peaked July 1


Chevron (US), peaked July 14


Petro China (non-US), peaked July 14


Coca-Cola (US), peaked July 14


Visa (US), peaked July 25


Oracle (US), peaked July 15


Intel (US), peaked July 20


Merck (US), peaked July 13


Disney (US), peaked July 13


Cisco (US), peaked July 26


Taiwan Semiconductor (non-US), peaked July 27


Unilever (non-US), peaked July 1


UnitedHealth Group (US), peaked July 20


Altria (US), peaked July 05


Citigroup (US), peaked July 15


Brystal Meyers (US), peaked July 15


Schlumberger (US), peaked July 22


Gilead (US), peaked July 25


3M (US), peaked July 20


McDonalds (US), peaked July 22


Kraft Heinz (US), peaked July 8


CVS (US), peaked July 14