SPX500 and USDJPY/GBPJPY: Vix support levels and timing

27 ก.ค. 2015

In this chart I illustrate a tool that FX traders like me can use to gauge when to trade either GBJPY or USDJPY (or both) and in which direction, using the S&P500 chart, vix readings and the techniques outlined by Tim West in his charts (range expansion support, vix post shock s/r levels (level where a buying spree causes a 75% retrace in Vix, etc.).

Every time the spread is wider between USDJPY and GBJPY, while S&P500 is forming either a peak or a trough, we have a good trade opportunity.
In this case, I'm looking to take a short term short with low risk, after today's close, in both yen pairs, aiming to take profits when S&P500 bottoms (if it does) at the Vix support level on chart.
This trade setup has worked multiple times, and I think it's worth a shot here, using 0.5% risk on each.
since S&P has crossed the first vix support level it's possible that it heads for the next one, to test the smart money buyers who entered big positions there.

In the case of USDJPY, the long entry is clear in the weekly chart, I'd place the stop under the last weekly swing low to be safe.
If we see S&P make a move past the stop level at 1996.6 then this trade setup will be invalid.

I'll update the chart with my entries, good luck!
Ivan.