ดัชนี เอส&พี 500ลดลง
Hard Landing or Soft Landing ?
A crash is imminent as per what one can see in this chart. Also it may be BRUTAL based on ACC/DIST. As you can see, it's gone up STEEPLY which the market has been in the same place - i.e. Fed has been buying at a steep pace. Why fed? Because BlackRock and quite a few other bankers say that 60% or more of their client portfolios are in CASH.
We know that JPN has 37% of it's equity market owned by it's Central Bank. People will soon wise up and realize that this is another way of making the poor people even more poor and rich richer. If you pumped in 5 Trillion in the market - then you (theoretically) devalued the currency and gave that to people who were rich (owned large amounts of stock).
I say theoretically because it's effects are long term and not that visible in the short run. In the short run you can focus on subsidies, farming benefits and many other things to keep the buying power equal. However for all traders who have been around a decade or so, can very easily compare costs then vs. now and will realize that value of their money is half now as compared.
A friend told me that he can still buy a good phone for $599 (iPhone's launch price, however later it was sold for $399) vs a decade ago or a good burger for $3. But he forgets Moore's law (webopedia.com/TERM/M/Moores_Law.html) which should have made the similar phone worth $40 by now and a top of the line one for $400 but instead a top of the line one is $1000 (iPhone 7 plus 256). Remember this 250% number, It keeps repeating in other examples. The productivity and processing enhancements in food which should make the burger 50% of price by now. The key ingredient in burger - beef is now being processed and comes from Brazil and India (yes India is the largest beef exporter. India is exporting all their domestic cattle then buying American / European breeds that provide A1 beta-casein milk and thereby causes major health problems) (snowvillecreamery.com/a1-and-a2-beta-casein-in-cow-milk.html)
Here are some valid comparisons:
- Price of a Disney ticket ( 200% over last 10 years but now larger value is derived by guests spending more dollars in the park thereby effecting a 250% increase ) (allears.net/tix/tixincrease.htm)
- Price of a hotel stay (discounting AirBnb and ultra cheap credit = difficult to find)
- Price of organic produce (add to it increased production and remove volume efficiencies = difficult)
- Price of Electricity ( 250% in last 10 years) (ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Consumers/Electricity/Electricity+Prices/Historical+Electricity+Prices)
- Price of water (kysq.org/docs/Maxwell_prices.pdf BUT this an old document and may not be a great indicator recently as shortages in California might have brought out the speculators)
I believe the price of electricity is the BEST indicator of all. There is no significant Moore's law effect. There is increasing demand but every increasing cheap credit available to increase generation.
I believe an increase in financial awareness will bring about rapid changes in fed's modus operandi. Once that takes some cash out of the system, we are looking at 1808 as a soft landing or 744 as a hard landing (global Bond crisis).
There is still upside potential but I believe that's capped at 2400 based on these charts. Please comment your views.
We know that JPN has 37% of it's equity market owned by it's Central Bank. People will soon wise up and realize that this is another way of making the poor people even more poor and rich richer. If you pumped in 5 Trillion in the market - then you (theoretically) devalued the currency and gave that to people who were rich (owned large amounts of stock).
I say theoretically because it's effects are long term and not that visible in the short run. In the short run you can focus on subsidies, farming benefits and many other things to keep the buying power equal. However for all traders who have been around a decade or so, can very easily compare costs then vs. now and will realize that value of their money is half now as compared.
A friend told me that he can still buy a good phone for $599 (iPhone's launch price, however later it was sold for $399) vs a decade ago or a good burger for $3. But he forgets Moore's law (webopedia.com/TERM/M/Moores_Law.html) which should have made the similar phone worth $40 by now and a top of the line one for $400 but instead a top of the line one is $1000 (iPhone 7 plus 256). Remember this 250% number, It keeps repeating in other examples. The productivity and processing enhancements in food which should make the burger 50% of price by now. The key ingredient in burger - beef is now being processed and comes from Brazil and India (yes India is the largest beef exporter. India is exporting all their domestic cattle then buying American / European breeds that provide A1 beta-casein milk and thereby causes major health problems) (snowvillecreamery.com/a1-and-a2-beta-casein-in-cow-milk.html)
Here are some valid comparisons:
- Price of a Disney ticket ( 200% over last 10 years but now larger value is derived by guests spending more dollars in the park thereby effecting a 250% increase ) (allears.net/tix/tixincrease.htm)
- Price of a hotel stay (discounting AirBnb and ultra cheap credit = difficult to find)
- Price of organic produce (add to it increased production and remove volume efficiencies = difficult)
- Price of Electricity ( 250% in last 10 years) (ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Consumers/Electricity/Electricity+Prices/Historical+Electricity+Prices)
- Price of water (kysq.org/docs/Maxwell_prices.pdf BUT this an old document and may not be a great indicator recently as shortages in California might have brought out the speculators)
I believe the price of electricity is the BEST indicator of all. There is no significant Moore's law effect. There is increasing demand but every increasing cheap credit available to increase generation.
I believe an increase in financial awareness will bring about rapid changes in fed's modus operandi. Once that takes some cash out of the system, we are looking at 1808 as a soft landing or 744 as a hard landing (global Bond crisis).
There is still upside potential but I believe that's capped at 2400 based on these charts. Please comment your views.
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