Donald Trumps U-Turns Pushing Stockmarkets Higher
ที่อัปเดต:
Stockmarkets definitely got shocked about Trumps "travel ban".
So - what happens now?
A "so called judge"(U.S. Judge James Robart) stopped the travel ban as everybody might know. Trumps answer is noticed in twitter for eternity.
Also is written there for ever "SEE YOU IN COURT": Trump wants to appeal at the supreme court and for sure - he is going to win and Trump is telling this to everyone before.
But: Today everyone can read Trumps u-turn on his travel ban: "Donald Trump Appears To Rule Out Supreme Court Appeal Over Travel Ban" Source: ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-appears-to-rule-out-supreme-court-appeal-over-travel-ban-1659165
This u-turn is not the only one we have seen in the past 3 weeks. But each u-turn is pushing stockmarkets higher. Donald Trump is setting now day by day a more moderate tone. Right now this is positiv for stockmarkets. But expect that this might change later again if ever there might any political crisis occur and this will bring stockmarkets down. I will follow up this issue here and will list Donald Trumps u-turns one by one. First supporting stocks to go higher and later to go lower. And to go lower means nothing else than a stockmarket crash.
So - what happens now?
A "so called judge"(U.S. Judge James Robart) stopped the travel ban as everybody might know. Trumps answer is noticed in twitter for eternity.
Also is written there for ever "SEE YOU IN COURT": Trump wants to appeal at the supreme court and for sure - he is going to win and Trump is telling this to everyone before.
But: Today everyone can read Trumps u-turn on his travel ban: "Donald Trump Appears To Rule Out Supreme Court Appeal Over Travel Ban" Source: ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-appears-to-rule-out-supreme-court-appeal-over-travel-ban-1659165
This u-turn is not the only one we have seen in the past 3 weeks. But each u-turn is pushing stockmarkets higher. Donald Trump is setting now day by day a more moderate tone. Right now this is positiv for stockmarkets. But expect that this might change later again if ever there might any political crisis occur and this will bring stockmarkets down. I will follow up this issue here and will list Donald Trumps u-turns one by one. First supporting stocks to go higher and later to go lower. And to go lower means nothing else than a stockmarket crash.
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FEB 17 2017: The numbers of Trumps U-Turns are skyrocking as everybody might have seen in the last days. So i would recommend to focus on a few issues only:- Border Adjustment TAX
- Mexiko / NAFTA
- China
- Russia
- TAX Reform
- Deregulation
Flynn vs. impeachment.
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FEB 17 2017: Border Adjustment TAX. U-Turn likelyMerkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same
For any border adjustment TAX Trump needs approval of congress and senate. At least two GOP Senators will vote against this: John McCain und Lindsey Graham. Only one Senator more voting against Trumps Border Tax means Donald Trump is becoming a lame duck as early as no US President bevore ever.
Quote: Merkel ally: If Trump imposes punitive tariffs, we'll likely do the same
Economy2 hours ago (Feb 17, 2017 05:40AM ET)
BERLIN (Reuters) - If U.S. President Donald Trump imposes punitive tariffs on goods from other countries, Europe will probably do the same, a senior ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a magazine interview.
Trump has pulled out of a multilateral trade agreement with Asia-Pacific nations, vowed to renegotiate the U.S. free-trade deal with Canada and Mexico and wants to protect U.S. industries from foreign competition by levying new tariffs on goods.
In January, he warned the United States would impose a border tax of 35 percent on imported cars. Volker Kauder, the leader of Merkel's conservatives in parliament, told Focus magazine in an interview due to be published on Saturday that he did not want an upward race in terms of tariffs. But he added: "If Trump makes the first move, we'll probably have to make the next one. Europe must reserve the right to respond with the same methods." Kauder said he was very concerned about Trump's global economic policy: "We need to talk to Trump and his people about how isolationist policies neither help America nor us."
Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/merkel-ally:-if-trump-imposes-punitive-tariffs,-we'll-likely-do-the-same-460590
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FEB 17 2017: Border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.Quote: Border adjustment tax is on 'life support,' and tax reform may come later ... and with less punch
The tax plan that promises the biggest cuts in corporate taxes without straining the federal budget looks increasingly unlikely to become law.
"I wouldn't call it dead, but I would say it's on life support," said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist with Horizon Investment. Valliere said the chances for the so-called border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/17/border-adjustment-tax-is-on-life-support-snagging-tax-reform.html
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FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
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FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save itJohn Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html
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FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today: invst.ly/3bcph invst.ly/3bcpm
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FEB 26 2017 Trump’s Cabinet has to work as a cleanup crewQuote; One of the unofficial duties of Trump’s Cabinet, it seems, is cleaning up the statements of the man they serve. Five weeks into Trump’s tenure in office, his deputies have found themselves softening, explaining and sometimes outright contradicting the President. Source: washingtonpost.com/politics/cleanup-duties-are-a-big-part-of-the-job-in-the-trump-cabinet/2017/02/25/f060ffd0-faeb-11e6-9b3e-ed886f4f4825_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpcabinet-534am:homepage/story&utm_term=.dccd7e5c0413
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Comment: FEB 27 2017: Wall Street treads water ahead of Trump's Tuesday speech(Reuters) - Quote: U.S. stocks struggled to find direction in early afternoon trading on Monday, shortly after the S&P 500 and the Dow hit record intraday highs on President Donald Trump's comments of a "big" infrastructure statement on Tuesday.
Trump's first address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening is being closely watched by investors for clues on how he planned to carry out his agenda of boosting economic growth.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-to-open-slightly-lower-after-record-run-462365
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FEB 27 2017: Trump seeks help of insurers to smooth Obamacare transitionPolitics3 hours ago (Feb 27, 2017 02:50PM ET)
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-seeks-help-of-insurers-to-smooth-obamacare-transition-462430
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FEB 28 2017, Next u-turn: Trump envisions bill allowing many immigrants to stay in USQuote: (CNN)President Donald Trump wants to pass an immigration reform bill that could grant legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US.
"The time is right for an immigration bill as long as there is compromise on both sides," Trump told reporters Tuesday at the White House.
The President is eager to pass a compromise immigration bill in his first term that would stop short of granting a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants, but would allow undocumented immigrants who aren't serious or violent criminals to live, work and pay taxes in the US without fear of deportation, a senior administration official said. And Trump is now considering adding the topic to his speech Tuesday night before his address to a joint session of Congress. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/02/28/politics/trump-immigration-bill/index.html
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MAR 01 2017: Trump smoothed his rough edges, soothed congressional Republicans and reached out to populations he'd previously alienated.Gone from his speech to a joint session of Congress were the lengthy attacks on media and Democratic opponents. Missing was the gloom-and-doom warnings of "American carnage" from his inaugural address. And while he didn't deliver a ton of policy specifics, Trump smoothed his rough edges, soothed congressional Republicans and reached out to populations he'd previously alienated.
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Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/03/01/politics/trump-address-congress-highlights/index.htmlบันทึกช่วยจำ
MAR 02 2017: Trump cuts today losses by 30 points in 10 Minutes only invst.ly/3dhpdTrump to talk to troops on Navy's next-gen aircraft carrier
militarytimes.com/articles/trump-speech-aircraft-carrier-thursday-military-spending
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MAR 02 2017: "Bad Cop- good Cop" - Wilbur Ross talks the Peso higher. The Peso gains 2,3% today.A better US-Mexico trade deal would save the battered peso: Commerce Secretary Ross
cnbc.com/2017/03/03/wilbur-ross-peso-down-but-us-mexico-trade-deal-would-help.html
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MAR 6 2017: Trump next u turn: New Travel Ban- no tweets
- no press
- Rex Tillerson adressed the press
President Trump privately signs new travel ban targeting those seeking new visas
chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-travel-ban-new-order-20170305-story.html
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MAR 8 2017: Trump's next u- turn. Spicer: "No reason to believe that Trump is Target of any Investigation.Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/no-reason-to-believe-trump-is-target-of-any-investigation:-white-house-464743
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MAR 08 2017: Trump´s next u-turn U.S. Commerce chief sees no major NAFTA talks until later this yearinvesting.com/news/forex-news/u.s.-commerce-chief-sees-no-major-nafta-talks-until-later-this-year-464746
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MAR 24 2017: Trump`s next u-turn: Nunes apologized to Democrats after surveillance comments: aideWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee apologized to Democratic members of the panel for going public and to the White House before briefing them about information he said he obtained about surveillance of President Donald Trump's team, a committee aide said on Thursday.
Quote: Committee chairman Representative Devin Nunes also promised to work with the panel's Democrats and share information with them, the aide said, a day after committee Democrats said Nunes' actions raised questions about the panel's ability to credibly investigate potential ties between Trump associates and Russia. Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/nunes-apologized-to-democrats-after-surveillance-comments:-aide-468356
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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culpritQuote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%3Fr%3DUS%26IR%3DT
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MAR 30 2017: Trump declares war on Republican conservatives: 'We must fight them'investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-takes-aim-at-republican-conservatives:-'we-must-fight-them'-469946
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APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provisioncnbc.com/2017/03/29/gop-sen-portman-we-can-cut-corporate-taxes-without-border-adjustment.html
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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EUUS President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html
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Comment: APR 03 2017: 'Not natural friends': Trump, Xi will be 'odd couple' at first summitSome White House aides believe Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner could be an influential moderating voice on how he handles Xi in their talks on Thursday and Friday. Contacts between Kushner and China’s U.S. envoy helped smooth the way for the meeting, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Even so, what worries the protocol-conscious Chinese more than policy clashes is the risk that the unpredictable Trump could publicly embarrass Xi, after several foreign leaders experienced awkward moments with the new U.S. president.
"Ensuring President Xi does not lose face is a top priority for China,” a Chinese official said. Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/'not-natural-friends':-trump,-xi-will-be-'odd-couple'-at-first-summit-470970
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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html
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APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatismQuote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
Source: marketwatch.com/story/trump-may-show-surprising-tilt-toward-pragmatism-2017-04-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
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APR 11 2017: Trumps tweets now less agressive and since some days free of "fake news comments".twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after allQuote:
- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.
- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.
Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/11/fitch-flips-trump-isnt-a-threat-to-the-world-economy-after-all.html
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APR 12 2017 - Trump just changed his mind on several major issues, including NATOIn a joint press conference with Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO, Trump reversed his position on the group, saying it is no longer obsolete. Trump acknowledged that he had previously complained that NATO didn't do more in the fight against terrorism.
"They made a change and now they do fight terrorism. I said it was obsolete. It's no longer obsolete," Trump said.
But that wasn't the president's only about-face on Wednesday.
He told The Wall Street Journal he won't label China a currency manipulator — a drastic change from his previous stance.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/12/trump-just-changed-his-mind-on-several-major-issues-including-nato.html
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APR 13 2017 - Trump's stunning u-turns on NATO, China, Russia and Syriaedition.cnn.com/2017/04/12/politics/trump-russia-china-nato-syria/index.html
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APR 13 2017 Trump is flip-flopping on everything — and it may make him great againmarketwatch.com/story/trump-is-flip-flopping-on-everything-and-it-may-make-him-great-again-2017-04-13?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
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APR 15 2017 Trump administration says no US trading partners manipulate currencycnbc.com/2017/04/14/trump-administration-says-no-us-trading-partners-manipulate-currency.html
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APR 15 2017: "The Art of Deal" - the question is, who made this deal?China could had used Kim Jon un as troublemaker to get a good trade deal as trouble shooter. A political masterpiece, made in China.
cnbc.com/2017/04/13/us-china-pressure-should-limit-north-korean-nuclear-threat-analysts-say.html
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APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policiesWASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL
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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source: thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic
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APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 timesbusinessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T
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APR 24 2017 Germany's Merkel encouraged U.S. will consider EU free trade dealinvesting.com/news/economic-indicators/germany's-merkel-encouraged-u.s.-will-consider-eu-free-trade-deal-476536
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Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html
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China welcomes U.S. saying it's open to talks on North Koreainvesting.com/news/world-news/south-korea,-u.s.-warn-of-punishment-for-north-korea
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Donald Trump offers to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un 'under the right circumstances'independent.co.uk/news/trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuclear-crisis-meeting-under-right-circumstances-latest-news-a7712156.html
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Trump floats Kim Jong Un sit-down: ‘Absolutely’ would meet with North Korean leaderfoxnews.com/politics/2017/05/01/north-korea-tensions-trump-prepared-for-worst-sanctions-bill-primed.html
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Trump reportedly calls Germans ‘very bad,’ threatens to end German car salescnbc.com/2017/05/26/trump-calls-germans-very-bad-threatens-to-end-german-car-sales-reports.html
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White House denies Trump threatened German automakersThe White House has pushed back on German media reports that President Donald Trump threatened to stop the sales of German cars in the United States.
Still, the administration is complaining about the U.S. trade deficit with Germany.
But major German automakers like BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz house plants in the Southern U.S.
cnbc.com/2017/05/26/donald-trump-german-automakers-trade-deficit-car-imports.html
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Trump seeks legislative wins to cast off shadow of Russia probesinvesting.com/news/politics-news/trump-seeks-legislative-wins-as-clock-ticks,-russia-probe-looms-492148
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President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad' nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-trump-six-month-approval-rating-lowest-record-article-1.3330385
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Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows: washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_18935.xml?uuid=QLWiFmnbEeeUq1sfD_RZ3w
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Remark: The last issue likely to keep Trump in Office is economics. U.S. voters link this to Trump. Facts are: Global strong economic fundamentals keep the U.S. economy growing. Trump advisers likely understand that any slowdown in local economics could end Trumps Presidentcy quickly on Russia probes.
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