KISS STRAT Big Top Part 2
Wow what a hammer candle... inconceivable!
Saw one of these 24 Feb, same size... gonna get a pullback, but probably not the next day. Loading up on puts here real risky.
Some peeps got killed today betting the big gap down would lead to more selling, as every past gap did. Different today.
In early trade VIX was barely moved on the big gap; Institutions were not loading up on puts... that was the clue to not to short the gap.
Algos programmed to buy 3500, likely a bottom for now. An orderly grind to an inverted right shoulder might last two weeks, or less.
Then a multiday rally will ensue, trapping bulls who think the bear market is over... such a vicious game we play.
We are near the end of Wyckoff distribution phase E, which will blend with accumulation Phase A, perhaps this began today.
During accumulation, a lower low is possible. More to follow on Wyckoff accumulation, which can last a year.
The bear market ain't over, but early signs of a turn begin to appear.
Saw one of these 24 Feb, same size... gonna get a pullback, but probably not the next day. Loading up on puts here real risky.
Some peeps got killed today betting the big gap down would lead to more selling, as every past gap did. Different today.
In early trade VIX was barely moved on the big gap; Institutions were not loading up on puts... that was the clue to not to short the gap.
Algos programmed to buy 3500, likely a bottom for now. An orderly grind to an inverted right shoulder might last two weeks, or less.
Then a multiday rally will ensue, trapping bulls who think the bear market is over... such a vicious game we play.
We are near the end of Wyckoff distribution phase E, which will blend with accumulation Phase A, perhaps this began today.
During accumulation, a lower low is possible. More to follow on Wyckoff accumulation, which can last a year.
The bear market ain't over, but early signs of a turn begin to appear.
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Expected PB to the Fibo, feeling for support at 360. More dwindles likely and chop for a week.Not crashing until Feb imo. Maybe mistaken! LOL
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Hmmm not looking like it should, lol. Did a read on this and found a nutty day like this occurred shortly before the massive crash in 2008:“There were only nine other days since 1983 when the S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday but finished the day up over 2%,” said Bespoke. “The most recent occurrence was over eleven years ago on 10/4/11 and before that, there were five separate occurrences in 2008 alone!”
see charticle:
marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page
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Good news is after this event there is an 87% likelihood of 15-20% rally within a year. April flowers?!บันทึก
This price behavior happened at 2020 election. Huge spike, selldown, then Bullish rebellion coming with massive short-killing rally imo.Tricks or Treats?! Shorting at the bottom not recommended!
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Lotta peeps think I gone bullish, lol. Let me emphasize again stated above: The Bear Market Ain't Over. NB: this idea is not that we goin to bull up again, just getting a bounce before the crash. So far it follows the '08 model near perfectly. Had one of these nutty R>G days then too, drifted bit higher, chopped and then dropped.
Chop can last for weeks or months. Crash may come in November or wait until Feb. Impossible to predict the unpredictable. It is going to crash imo.
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Been looking at these nutty reversal days in historical archives, seems they occur around crash events.The wild gyration of price is part of the implied volatility, nutty swings both ways driven by greed, hope and fear.
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Gosh, giving it back again!? Black Swan coming?! Stay tuned!บันทึก
Actually tracking along the bars pattern fairly well. 100-pip drop to 3560 will be a buy zone imo, if it prints. Notice how the bearish moves have become a steady grind rather than a panic dump. Took all day to grind down and the result was a fairly minor move.
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Not holding anything more than minutes or hours, lol. Did keep some calls Friday for a runner which paid Monday against all odds. Scalped am short, missed the rip. Price enters R zone and has gone overbought.Anything can happen. No positions, watch, wait.
Not an investor's market, pure gamble evry day.
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AH futurz giving back evry penny of NQ. MSFT disappoints, tanking AH. You cannot hold a damned thing at night!บันทึก
Although move higher is still possible, all hangs upon ERs from AAPL & AMZN tonite. A double disappointment now will surely tank it.
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INTC Friday also, evry ER been a tanker...บันทึก
AMZN, AAPL tanking AH. Four misses this week after GOOG, META. Get ready for waterfall panic sale!บันทึก
Wow AH reversal NQ bought back up fgs; the dip on this nutty rally this felt like a 4th EW, can bull higher, might see 4k, acts like it wants greed>fear;look at TSLA fgs up 10% off ER lows, watch them buy GOOG and META back and moon it.
Trade with caution or don't trade. Evry position is high risk atm.
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There's the 5th wave, probly folow-thru monday imo.บันทึก
Weakness on 31 OCt was to be expected, imo if FOMC comes out rosy this thing will take off. CPI next week might show some improvement, if it does, any glimmer of hope will drive this higher.
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