16 Month Up Trend Could End
ที่อัปเดต:
Since February 2016 U.S. Stockmarkets rising without any 5% consolidation. This is the longest streak since 1995.
Three ways anticipating a consolidation pattern to come:
- Technical: Possible rising wedge (SPX)
- Sentiment: Greed & Fear Index showing "extreme greed" (75)
- Volatility: The VIX is likely to drop on record low levels
The upcoming move could be a medium term countertrend not ending the bull market probably.
Three ways anticipating a consolidation pattern to come:
- Technical: Possible rising wedge (SPX)
- Sentiment: Greed & Fear Index showing "extreme greed" (75)
- Volatility: The VIX is likely to drop on record low levels
The upcoming move could be a medium term countertrend not ending the bull market probably.
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SPX, technical: Todays daily candle pattern need to be confirmed on tuesday by a downday to anticipate a further short term sell signal.บันทึกช่วยจำ
In the chart above is mentioned "EXIT". On Friday all long trades are closed. For additional information click on this chart to load bars and read comments.
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SPX: ReviewClick on the chart to load new bars and read about the sentiment in January 2016
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SPX: Exhaustion Gap?บันทึกช่วยจำ
SENTIMENTCNN GREED & FEAR INDEX: 81, EXTREME GREED
Quote:
"During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 40.25% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.
Last changed Jul 17 from a Greed rating
Updated Jul 25 at 10:44am"
Source: money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
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SENTIMENT: VIXQUOTE: "Wall Street's 'fear index', the VIX, sinks to lowest since 1993"
m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-street's-'fear-index',-the-vix,-sinks-to-lowest-since-1993-509626
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McDonald's, Caterpillar power S&P to recordinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/dow,-s-amp
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Volatility plunge sends VIX index to 23-year low investing.com/news/stock-market-news/volatility-plunge-sends-vix-index-to-23-year-low-509703
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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: HISTORIC VIX NUMBERS UNDER"10" EXTREMELY RARE
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QUOTE:
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Here’s what happened the last time the VIX traded this low
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The CBOE Volatility Index dropped to its lowest level since December 1993 on Tuesday, and history shows it could mark a tremendous buying opportunity for stocks.
According to Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments, the so-called fear index has only closed below the 10 level on 24 trading days in history, with 15 of those days occurring in the last three months. Note, a close below 10 on Tuesday would mark the 25th time in history and 16th occurrence in the last three months.
But while Wall Street weighs whether the low volatility reading could signal a top for the markets, Stutland pointed out that it could actually foreshadow the next leg up in the rally.
"When we see [the VIX] this low, we look at the stock market and it has done fairly well," he explained Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "When we see the VIX trades below 10, usually in the last couple of times [the market has moved about 2 percent higher one month later]."
He also noted that the last time the VIX saw a prolonged period below 10, in November 2006, the S&P 500 rallied 10 percent six months later, and 5 percent one year later.
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NASDAQ COMP: IMPRESSIVE SELL SIGNAL LIKELYบันทึกช่วยจำ
SPX: IMPRESSIVE SELL SIGNALบันทึกช่วยจำ
DJIA: SHORT /MEDIUM TERM SELL SIGNAL LIKELYบันทึกช่วยจำ
SPX, weekly pattern:บันทึกช่วยจำ
DJIA, TECHNICAL VIEW:ALL TIME HIGH BY OPENING GAP. If ever this might be am exhaustion gap than the DJIA could peak today.
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Mueller impanels Washington grand jury in Russia probe: Wall Street Journalinvesting.com/news/politics-news/mueller-impanels-washington-grand-jury-in-russia-probe-wall-street-journal-514371
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One year into the FBI's Russia investigation, Mueller is on the Trump money trailedition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/politics/mueller-investigation-russia-trump-one-year-financial-ties/index.html
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Trump's approval rating plunges to new low, poll shows.
Trump's approval rating is down 7 percentage points from the 40 percent rating he received in a similar survey in late June.
It also stated that American voters say 54 to 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president.
cnbc.com/2017/08/03/trumps-approval-rating-plunges-to-new-low-poll-shows.html?recirc=taboolainternal
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MARKET VIEW: WEAK CHINA DATA SCREW DOWN STOCKMARKETSWorld stocks shrug off slowing China trade growth to hit record
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-subdued-as-china-trade-disappoints-515628
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VIX:บันทึกช่วยจำ
Reversal pattern occurs now, but needs confirmation:บันทึกช่วยจำ
DERIVATIVES-VIX shorts hit new record reuters.com/article/derivatives-vix-shorts-hit-new-record-idUSL5N1KU4TR
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Downside momentum accelerate after rising wedge re broken to the downside:บันทึกช่วยจำ
DJIA: Lower highs, lower lows, gravestone doji. Shortterm sell off likely to come.บันทึกช่วยจำ
Quote: "Money flow: Investors pull billions from US stocks in longest outflow streak since 2004" Source: cnbc.com/2017/08/25/investors-pull-billions-from-us-stocks-in-longest-streak-since-2004.html?recirc=taboolainternal
Remark: Traders should remind the "lock up periode" for stock repurchase programs to start in 3-4 weeks from now. Stock buy backs may prevent right now US stockmarkets from more selling pressure. This is going to change within days by end of september if investors might continue to pull money out of US stockmarkets.
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Quote: "The report also pointed out the turn away from U.S. stocks coincided with the late June surge in the euro against the U.S. dollar to its strongest in nearly a year, after comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested higher inflation and tighter monetary policy soon in the euro zone. The euro subsequently climbed to its highest in more than two years in early August, and traded slightly below those levels near $1.186 Friday. Draghi is scheduled to speak later Friday afternoon at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming."
Source: Link above
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GEOPOLITICS: Trump vs. Government shutdown vs. "The Wall" vs. Mexico.
Trump Repeats Making Mexico Pay for Wall as He Seeks Funding
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-27/trump-recommits-to-make-mexico-pay-for-wall-as-he-seeks-funding
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Remark: Not really difficult to understand that Trump is trying to deliver his widely promised "wall" - but no one is willing to pay for it. For US stockmarkets and the USD this more or less "funny issue" now is turning serious and negative.
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GEOPOLITICS: Trumps vs. "the Wall" vs. "China": Trump reportedly demands China action: 'I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs'
cnbc.com/2017/08/27/trump-reportedly-demands-china-action-i-want-tariffs-and-i-want-someone-to-bring-me-some-tariffs.html
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Dow futures open more than 100 points lower after North Korea fires missile over Japan North Korea fired a missile over Japan, according to local media.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the ballistic missile passed over the Tohoku region at the northern end of Japan.
Local government urged people living in the area to take refuge in solid buildings or underground shelters, NHK reported.
cnbc.com/2017/08/28/japanese-government-warns-north-korea-missile-headed-toward-northern-japan-report-says.html
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. Quote:
"Trump to tout tax reform in Missouri, won't offer specifics
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump will turn his signature populist rhetoric toward tax reform on Wednesday in a speech expected to tout tax cuts as a way to help workers and the middle class in an economy "rigged" against them, senior White House officials said.
With his domestic policy agenda stalled amid Republican infighting and his approval rating at just 35 percent, Trump will make his first presidential speech specifically on tax reform, one of his key 2016 campaign promises."
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-hits-road-to-tout-tax-reform-as-helping-workers-523757
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