Looks like two weeks left of the bear market now

17 ต.ค. 2022

The end is coming in focus. We have re-adjusted some key points and placed the next estimates on the chart. The biggest question was the placement of Minor 1 (yellow), once Minor 2 jumped. We are breaking down the future on the hourly chart to make it easier to follow along.

We are in Minor wave 3, a day later than originally expected. The index dropped after the inflation report as expected, but the nearly 200 point rise was surprising. We called the low on the morning of the inflation report the end of Minor 1 and the top occurred early Friday to end Minor 2. We are now in Minor 3.

Based on waves ending in 553, models have highest agreement on a length of 1, 2, and 4 days long. Second highest agreement at 5 days and then it drops to 3 and 7 days. Movement extensions based on waves ending in 553 have 1st quartile movement at 124.33%, median at 158.475%, and 3rd quartile at 1.7654%. These levels are plotted with the light blue lines on the chart.

Based on waves ending in 53, models have highest agreement on 4 days, second highest on 5 days, then 7 days, 3 days, and 1 day rounding out the top 5 potential lengths. Movement extensions on the same data has the quartiles at 147.99%, 167.45%, and 201.7%.

I am looking for a target of about 5 trading days. My models do not count the day Minor 2 ended (Friday October 14) as day 1. This means day 5 would be this coming Friday. Five trading days consist of 32.5 trading hours, and I will round this wave out to around 35 trading hours. Six of those hours has finished and occurred on Friday.

Minor wave 3 is composed of 5 Minute waves. Minute wave 1 tends to account for 21% of the overall length of the wave it resides in, Minute wave 2 is around 11%, 3 is 40%, 4 is 9%, and 5 is 25%. Based on these values and an estimated total for Minor wave 3 to be near 35 trading hours, I am projecting Minute wave 1 to last around 7 hours, meaning we may bottom within the first 2 hours on Monday October 17. We would then rise over the next 4 trading hours. I rounded this out to align near the end of trading on Monday, meaning we could top and end Minute wave 2 late tomorrow. Minute wave 3 could last 14 hours. This means the market will likely drop on Tuesday and Wednesday (accounting for around 13 hours). Thursday could begin Minute wave 4 up for around 3 hours. This means we may start Thursday on an upward trajectory but top midday and begin the final wave 5 decline. I have wave 5 running through the close on Friday. These dates, times and projected levels are outlined on the chart above.

I have also adjusted the end points and levels for Minor waves 4 and 5. Minor wave will be the bottom of the market for 2022.

We will see how it pans out but I think the bear market is nearly over….for now. We have done well forecasting these past few months and will see what the future holds. The biggest indicator to our system would be the indeed short-term bottom occurring around the end of this month and a massive reversal to follow. Let us know what you think