SPX LONGER TERM FIB CHANNEL BATTLE

9 ก.ค. 2022

I've had these fib channels up for a long while now, and so far, they haven't failed me. There appears to be a potential counter narrative going on long term. You can see that around 2015, the market became lower volume and very conflicted about which channel to take. The COVID drop exactly touched the 50% line of this down channel red narrative. But we know what happened next. Now that these fibs are well defined for everyone to see, it sure appears that any up move will prioritize that triangular space between the top of the red channel and green channel. I think there will be a big drop off of that level, because the volume profile up here is terribly thinned out. We're still just price exploring without a lot of conviction, when compared to lower prices. I would assume that as we approach the top of these two fib channels, volume will get thinner and thinner, resulting in exhaustion around June 2023, so maybe another 11 months. But, we may do a double tap of that green channel before failure. My ghost bars won't be perfect, but it is set up to keep key support and resistance fibs in mind. I can't see how we won't revisit the 2000 level. Because the volume interest is stuck down there. The data suggests we'll go to 2000, but have a really big and long bounce. Maybe before 2030, we will enter into a consolidation triangle the size of your Mom's Butt, that will take the rest of the decade to figure out. Maybe we won't enter the red channel and stay in it. Maybe we'll reject it's 50% line and break free of it. I think the green bull channel is here to stay, no matter what. I am curious how low in that channel we'll go before we find the bottom. Generally, a rejection of a channel top yields a drop back to the 23% fib, but not necessarily the base of the channel. So, 2000 - 2200, if timed correctly, would meet that criteria longer term. Maybe once we get down there, the market will stop trading together, and true value of individual companies will be more reliable. Or the market is permanently a game now with algos and retailers perfectly reacting to set levels and we're never going back to the way we used to calculate value ever again.

Oh, and that dashed black trend line is the ALL TIME trend line from 1929. We'd also come down and touch that and I'd expect a stupid level bounce off of that considering how fall we'd have fallen to get there. Should be fun unless you're an investor. haha.

9 ก.ค. 2022

บันทึก

Also, on the "last few months" volume profile, it's kinda small up there, but you will note the point of control (yellow line) is still at the all time high level. So, short to medium term, volume interest was heavily weighted higher up, not at our current price level. I think we need one more highly volatile, exhaustive push to that green channel top failure before losing our bowels.

9 ก.ค. 2022

บันทึก

When we hit the contested area at the final red fib, I think any extra last second bullishness to confirm the green channel top is a good thing. That means that the green channel narrative is still in play. Even if we fall back into and retest some of those other red levels, I would expect that making sure the top red fib is weakened and less confident as an upper barrier will justify trying to test it again later, possibly giving us confidence to leave the red channel many years from now and stay within the bounds of a bull channel. If we go all the way down to 1400 I'd be shocked. The Point of Control was at that levels until very recently. But we did get that POC line to move up to 2100, so I think that will be final support later on.