Corona Crash, What to Expect? What to Prepare For?

28 ก.พ. 2020

The Corona virus is a big Marco economic issue.
The Corona Virus is going to cause a significant dent in global output and trade.
Infection rates are rising across the globe. Countries are taking measures to curb the spread, the next steps will be closing schools and those who can work from home will work from home. But huge swathes of the population who need to go to work might be sent home to stop the spread, this will mean big corp profitability will suffer significantly.
The 11% drop in 6 days on the S&P 500 is a very violent stock market shock.
The financial crisis in 2007 lost the market 43% in 18 months.
One should prepare now for at least another 10% drop in the S&P over the next weeks.
A worst-case scenario looks to be an additional drop to the 2007 and 2000 market tops (the long red horizontal line) which would mean a further 38% drop.
This all depends on how we contain the virus. If we contain it well and soon, expect a strong bounce back. If not expect further decline.
Batten down the hatches.