SMCI Never worst and less liquid.

31 ต.ค.

Smci live topic continues - the allegations rebuttal -

Hindenburg sounds more insidious that a drunk husband, quarreling with his drunk wife of 50 years.
Here is the rebuttal. The allegations have no legs and made Smci the gift of the century

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI):

Export Controls
• Even U.S. defense companies can inadvertently have products end up in restricted countries. SMCI must comply with U.S. export control regulations, but the Hindenburg report lacks specific evidence of violations.

Accounting Manipulation
• Past SEC charges found SMCI understated expenses, but the current report lacks detailed evidence of new manipulation.

Undisclosed Relationships with Suppliers
• SMCI has relationships with related parties (e.g., CEO’s brothers’ companies), which could raise governance concerns but are not necessarily illegal. Disclosing these details could be sensitive due to industry competition.

Business Model and Competitor Dynamics
• As an assembler, SMCI relies on confidential relationships with suppliers. Competitors like Dell and HP would benefit from any disclosed information, making secrecy crucial.

Market and Competitive Context
• SMCI’s growth depends on innovation and meeting demand for AI and cloud solutions. Historical issues and current practices raise red flags, but the context of complex supply chains and competitive dynamics is important to consider.
These points highlight the complexities and potential motivations behind the allegations against SMCI, while also considering the broader industry context.

THERE IS NOTHING HERE, THAT MAKES ANY OF IT ILLEGAL.


Then there is the issue of liquidity. Id delisted from the nasdaq the sahres become less liquid, but never less liquid that today and yesterday. Thus, as long as the sales keep on happening I DON'T CARE like that song I DON'T CARE, I love it, I don't Care. This is a lotto ticket gentlemen, with great odds. You risk what you will. I love it, and I don't care.... we will next week what kind of pop we get, I contend it should be huge, liquidity or not I Don't Care.

Will ad more, but I am expecting a beat of at least 7% with respect to last quater and a net revenue of 9%

The rest the fact that DELL and HP are likely pressing duttons to call E&Y to tell them how dare you we will not use you if you enable SMCI (this is the movie I am playing in my haad, I never herd that conversations, or did ? I must be trippin._

31 ต.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

what a crazy world ahhhh. I hope you got your good fill to ride up. Look Shorts are trapped without liquidity, I will sep my price at $88.90 a share and them likely move them up.

So, you smarty, you see the issues, it is mechanical, and it affects the shorts more than Us longs. We hold and we add, the rush to cover, SO next week earnings = shorts decimated = and or next week delisted, shorts decimated as well. whatever the outcomes shorts must cover before wednesday. Shorts the walking dead. Ps these are all friends of Nathan and nathan does not do math, he erred bigly, more than Michael Bloomberg did today.

31 ต.ค.

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Super Micro Absolute Latest--

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has recently shown positive momentum in its stock performance. Here are some key points regarding its current status and outlook:
Stock Performance: SMCI's stock has rebounded significantly, gaining approximately 10% after previously being considered oversold.

This recovery comes amidst concerns raised by a short report from Hindenburg Research, which have since subsided as the company continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals.

Analyst Ratings: The consensus among analysts is shifting positively towards SMCI, with an average rating of "Buy." The price target for SMCI is projected at around $74.53, indicating a potential upside of over 61% from its current levels.

Financial Growth: For the fiscal year 2024, Super Micro reported revenues of $14.94 billion, marking a remarkable increase of 109.77% compared to the previous year. Their net income also saw substantial growth, reaching $1.21 billion.

Market Sentiment: The sentiment around SMCI is largely bullish, with many investors recognizing its potential as a key player in the AI infrastructure market. The company's ability to ship over 100,000 GPUs quarterly positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for high-performance computing solutions.


Earnings Report:
SMCI is set to release its next earnings report on November 6th, 2024, which could further influence investor sentiment and stock performance depending on the results.

Overall, the combination of strong financial results, positive analyst ratings, and bullish market sentiment suggests that SMCI is indeed on an upward trajectory in the current market environment.

Get my perspective and decided.

Beat by 6% with respect to last Q, it could be a lot more, but why fluff to such, I am not the guy at The Hindenburg Report, I rather not make up stuff. 6% is conservative and surely will be beaten.
I have profit margins at 9% last Q it was 8.7% - why a bit more, because SMCI has ample parts in inventory this Q and normalize its supply chain.
Based on this paulty projections, the shared get a fair value of $117.89 each.

SMCI is a small company, disclosing their supply chain interaction, can place SMCI in a supply inventory choke, by DELL AND HP is they get wind of terms, they could if the wanted take all the supply and paralyze SMCI. Until SMCI builds a massive inventory or secured production quotas by contract, SMCI better stay hush hush about the Info that Hindenburg Report wants to extract from them. Next wednesday is the date with solid earnings announcements.

1 พ.ย.

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SMCI Cash reserves 1.7 Billion, DFC 2024: $106.66 (current DCF estimate)

October 31, 2024
What are the cash reserves for smci
SMCI Financials

Cash

1.7B USD

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)'s cash reserves:

Cash and Cash Equivalents
SMCI's cash and cash equivalents have shown significant growth over the past few years:

2020: $210,533,000
2021: $232,266,000
2022: $267,397,000
2023: $440,459,000
2024: $1,669,766,000. < today .....

Cash and Short-Term Investments
When considering both cash and short-term investments, the figures are:

2020: $210,533,000
2021: $232,266,000
2022: $267,697,000
2023: $440,559,000
2024: $1,669,766,000

Analysis
Substantial Growth: SMCI's cash reserves have grown dramatically, with a nearly 279% increase from 2023 to 2024.
Liquidity Strength: The significant increase in cash reserves indicates a strong liquidity position for the company.
Financial Flexibility: With over $1.6 billion in cash as of 2024, SMCI has considerable financial flexibility for investments, debt repayment, or other strategic initiatives.
Minimal Short-Term Investments: The company appears to keep most of its liquid assets in cash rather than short-term investments.
Year-over-Year Trend: There's a clear upward trend in cash reserves, with each year showing an increase over the previous one.

This substantial cash reserve position suggests that SMCI has been generating strong cash flows and/or has raised capital, providing a solid financial foundation for the company's operations and future growth initiatives.

Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Here's a list of sales (revenue) for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) over the years since 2020:

2020: $3,339,281,000
2021: $3,557,422,000
2022: $5,196,099,000
2023: $7,123,482,000
2024: $14,942,854,000. < today ... at this time...

1 พ.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Key observations:

SMCI has shown consistent year-over-year growth in revenue.
The most significant jump occurred between 2023 and 2024, with revenue more than doubling from about $7.1 billion to nearly $14.9 billion.
Over the five-year period, SMCI's revenue has grown by approximately 347%, showcasing remarkable expansion.

This substantial revenue growth indicates strong market demand for SMCI's products and services, particularly in the most recent fiscal year.

Based on the financial data provided, here are the profit margin percentages (net income ratio) for Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) since 2020, listed by year:

2020: 2.52%
2021: 3.14%
2022: 5.49%
2023: 8.98%
2024: 8.09%. < Today ..... projected margin 12.87% at this time before earnings

These percentages represent the net income ratio, which is calculated by dividing net income by total revenue. This metric shows how much profit the company generates as a percentage of its total revenue.Key observations:

SMCI has shown a general trend of improving profit margins from 2020 to 2023.
The most significant jump occurred between 2022 and 2023, with the profit margin increasing from 5.49% to 8.98%.
There was a slight decrease in profit margin from 2023 to 2024, dropping from 8.98% to 8.09%.
Despite the slight decrease in 2024, the profit margin remains significantly higher than in the earlier years of this period.

This trend suggests that SMCI has generally been improving its profitability over the years, with a particularly strong performance in 2023 and 2024 compared to earlier years.

Based on the information provided in the search results, I don't have a comprehensive year-by-year fair value analysis for SMCI since 2020. However, I can provide you with the current fair value estimates from different sources:

Morningstar's fair value estimate: $321.15
Macroaxis Real Value estimate: $122.24
ValueInvesting . IO, Intrinsic Value estimate: $106.66 (as of October 21, 2024) < Today.
Alpha Spread Intrinsic Value estimate: $81.38

It's important to note that these estimates vary significantly, which is common for fair value calculations as they depend on different methodologies and assumptions.

1 พ.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Current DCF estimate (from ValueInvesting.io): 106.66Let's estimate the DCF-based share price for each year, considering the company's growth and financial performance:

2024: $106.66 (current DCF estimate) < Today at this time .... afte earnings we see.

2023: $85.33 (Adjusting downward by 20% due to the significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024)

2022: $59.73 (Further adjusting downward by 30% due to lower profitability and revenue compared to 2023)

2021: $35.84 (Adjusting downward by 40% due to significantly lower revenue and profit margins)

2020: $28.67 (Adjusting downward by 20% due to lower revenue and profit margins compared to 2021)

Please note that these are rough estimates based on the current DCF valuation and known financial performance trends.
There is plenty of margin for error ....

Other information of interest



"linkedin.com/posts/supermicro_supermicro-liquidcooling-rackscale-activity-7256704909222305794-sejb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop"



Supermicro is extremely excited to be the main system supplier to xAI in powering Colossus – the world’s largest AI supercomputer.The very dense, cutting-edge liquid-cooled Supermicro 4U GPU System is optimized to provide state-of-the-art performance, and the storage servers are designed to deliver the massive amounts of data that the next-gen AI chatbot Grok requires to provide accurate responses to a wide range of inquiries.xAI’s Colossus AI supercomputer achieves massive scale using the NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet networking platform to connect 100,000 NVIDIA HGX H100 GPUs, allowing ultra-fast communications to achieve Grok’s interactive responses.Experience the future of AI with Supermicro’s innovative solutions at the heart of Colossus: hubs.la/Q02W0kll0



Total Revenue (2024): $14,942,854,000
Number of Employees: 4,155

Revenue per Employee = Total Revenue / Number of Employees = $14,942,854,000 / 4,155 = $3,596,354.75 per employee

So, for SMCI:Head count: 4,155 full-time employees Revenue per employee: Approximately $3.6 million

This figure indicates a very high revenue per employee, which is often seen in companies with highly efficient operations or those in capital-intensive industries. It's worth noting that this metric can vary significantly across different industries and should be compared to industry peers for context.



AMD:

Total Revenue (FY 2023): $22,680,000,000
Number of Employees: Approximately 25,000 (as of early 2024)

Revenue per Employee for AMD = $22,680,000,000 / 25,000= $907,200 per employee

Tesla (TSLA):

Total Revenue (FY 2023): $96.77 billion
Number of Employees: Approximately 127,855 (as of December 31, 2023)

Revenue per Employee for Tesla = $96,770,000,000 / 127,855= $756,862 per employee

Revenue per Employee Comparison: A sign of efficiency utilization.

AMD: $907,200 per employee

Tesla: $756,862 per employee

SMCI: $3,596,354.75 per employee

1 พ.ย.

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here is a link to the background of the Hindenburg Report, timing of the report and affiliation with short raiders, and a theory about his buddies being trapped without liquidity and in the most crowded short ever. Bigger than the Tesla short.

linkedin.com/pulse/nathan-andreson-s-sc-n-xbaqe/?trackingId=q0SmeejyQU6kcVlM/nRuGw==

1 พ.ย.

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Here is another link to an article I found - you may want to read it, the numbers for SMCI loos awesome and so does the cash in hand revenue per employee (a measure of efficiency) Hindenburg is a piranha self serving and opportunistic.

linkedin.com/pulse/smci-cash-reserves-17-billion-dfc-2024-10666-current-dcf-s-sc-n-e9aye/?trackingId=e2OQ2UOOR4mXUmYmxMoAjQ==

5 พ.ย.

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today we will see - going vested or or unvested. That is the question ?

I am going vested .......