8/6/24 - $smci - Punting long print @ $600

6 ส.ค. 2024

8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: SMCI
Punting long print @ $600

- liquidity conditions generally look favorable for a day (maybe more?) but enough to punt on this beaten up sector on a name growing high 30's CAGR+ and trading 25x PE next year
- think the "surprise" that there's a lot more demand for full stack data center will drive more upside toward the $800 level (fair value, but that's what was hard for me to own back in april).
- will be volatile. took a 50 bps punt (typically wb 25 bps on EPS like this) mainly bc of the sell off y day leaving more room for upside in my estimation than downside risk.
- as always. size accordingly.
- curious if anyone has nuanced POV.

V

6 ส.ค. 2024

บันทึก

For fiscal year 2025 ending June 30, 2025, the Company expects net sales of $26.0 billion to $30.0 billion.

um guys. guidance matters.
took this to a 125 bps position AH down 8% at ~560.

let's see what the CC brings, but all else equal the initial reaction had it right. we can debate the merit of the actual print, which was meh. but again. guidance wags the dog in techlandia.

6 ส.ค. 2024

บันทึก

a caveat to my caveat is that communication matters.

this mgmt team can't properly speak english - in the mkt we r in right now - say what you want. it matters.

the IR guy is more boring to listen to than an AI robot. it matters.

might keep holding this thing but i typically listen to the mgmt/ have a POV before i size it up. still conviction that the guide looks good relative to the reaction. but good lawd this conf call is so boooring.

zzz

V

15 ส.ค. 2024

บันทึก

per comment below from aug 7... as of 8/15 1:19pm ET... i'm now out of this thing completely at $623. good riddance that was a ridiculous ride for seemingly obvious play. good grief.
risk is super whack today in the USSA mkts.
be safe everyone. take advantage of the up move.

V