Has the global recession already begun?
Taking a short position on the SA/JSE 40 as price has broken out of our dynamic support, pulled back and continued to breakout to the downside.
On an Elliot wave perspective, it looks like we have completed an entire bullish wave as I have identified 5 motives waves in the Supercycle which means we would have to see 3 corrective waves going to the downside. Which means we should currently be forming wave A until price invalidates this.
Not only do the Elliot waves point to price being bearish but I am confident we've reached a top in the South African stock market as price has failed to break above the high at 75470 and on the micro timeframes price has been making lower highs and lows since then.
For my bearish stance to be invalidated I'd need to see price break above the range high at 73853.97. If not however, I will be looking to add more positions at the major higher low the market has created at 66423.89 as this would officially signal on the macro timeframes that price is breaking structure and is going to continue to go to the downside.
I will be aiming to exit at the inception of the major dynamic support / the end of the corrective Elliot waves.
TP - 47108.35
Invalidation / SL - 73853.97
On an Elliot wave perspective, it looks like we have completed an entire bullish wave as I have identified 5 motives waves in the Supercycle which means we would have to see 3 corrective waves going to the downside. Which means we should currently be forming wave A until price invalidates this.
Not only do the Elliot waves point to price being bearish but I am confident we've reached a top in the South African stock market as price has failed to break above the high at 75470 and on the micro timeframes price has been making lower highs and lows since then.
For my bearish stance to be invalidated I'd need to see price break above the range high at 73853.97. If not however, I will be looking to add more positions at the major higher low the market has created at 66423.89 as this would officially signal on the macro timeframes that price is breaking structure and is going to continue to go to the downside.
I will be aiming to exit at the inception of the major dynamic support / the end of the corrective Elliot waves.
TP - 47108.35
Invalidation / SL - 73853.97
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