Surf Blog - QQQ

10 ส.ค. 2023

QQQ: $367.91

Surfing blog for my own trades and ad hoc comments on QQQ.

10 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

QQQ: $367.91
Position: Short

Technicals:
1. Fractals point to 1 October bottom
2. At price of about 333
3. 333 is also .382 fib
4. MACD falling and quickly approaching 0

Analysis:
1. short QQQ over the summer hols (PSQ)**
2. and return to look for a long entry in October
3. **am not in the short trade (i do not do shorts)
4. will keep tabs on price action

Chart:
twitter.com/0xWJSurf.../1689526047459708928

14 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

QQQ: $366.24
Position: Short
State of the Market Note

Yesterday (13 Aug), Goldman analysts predicted rate cuts coming in only in 2Q2024, and even that, there was no urgency to cut rates because there would not be any recession.

This is completely understandable and would exactly be what i'd say which means rates would be really sticky, and worse, there would always be a risk of a rate increase if inflation rears its head again. But would that happen? No one knows.

At this time, even though we have predictions of a soft landing, I am wondering if one of 2 things would happen: 1. a recession occurs bad, like the one which happened exactly 4 yrs ago. 2. an invisible hand wanted to supercharge the economy ahead of the elections.

In any case, we need to be very careful given the opportunity costs of choosing risk over the current delicious risk free money market rates. There could yet be another rate hike in September. For that reason, it will be difficult for me to justify a long position just yet.

Analysis:
1. no change, looking for a long entry in October
2. may or may not depending on Fed decision in September

businesstimes.com.sg/international/goldman-pencils-first-us-fed-rate-cut-second-quarter-2024

18 ส.ค. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

QQQ: 357.05
Position: Short

Technicals:
1. Falling nicely as expected from fractals

Fundamentals:
1. Same old reasons of rates and china slowdown, but mostly they bring these reasons up after the fact

Analysis:
1. no change, there may be a bump up (see chart), but short ends and long starts in October

Chart:
t.ly/Xcpvf

2 ก.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

QQQ: 377.59
Position: Short

[note: sorry, i've been on summer holidays and feeling under the weather (dizziness). some folks could have closed on daily macd positive on 29 Aug, and short would be marginally positive)

Technicals:
1. Daily MACD has turned positive
2. Seasonal down September incoming

Analysis:
1. no change, end the short in October, and turn long.

24 ก.ย. 2023

บันทึกช่วยจำ

QQQ: $357.91

Commentary:
1. We got a solid dump as expected, and the wave has just started

Action:
1. No change, awaiting turning long in October.

6 ต.ค. 2023

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง

QQQ: $358.69

Action:
1. Close Short position from Aug 10 entry of $367.91

Gain/Loss:
1. Gain on this trade of 4.8%