NZD/JPY short setup if risk rolls over
NZD/JPY has rebounded over six big figures from its August nadir, enjoying relative calm in markets which has enabled carry trades to be reestablished. But the bullish price action is showing signs of fatigue; RSI (14) has broken its uptrend while Tuesday’s daily candle looks suspiciously like a topping patten, rejected from the intersection of horizontal resistance at 89.96 and former uptrend running from the pandemic lows in early 2020.
I’m not ready to short just yet knowing buyers are parked above 88.00 based on the price action seen over the past week. Liquidity is also likely to wane ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. But if NZD/JPY were to fail again at the former uptrend, especially post Powell, the conviction behind the trade would increase considerably.
Stops could be placed above the uptrend with shorts targeting a push towards 87.72. If that level gives way, there’s little major support to speak of until you get down to 83.50.
I’ve included correlation analysis in the bottom pane, looking at the rolling daily relationship NZD/JPY has had with Nasdaq 100 futures over the past fortnight. At 0.88, the strength of the correlation suggests a short setup is far more likely to succeed if risk appetite rolls over.
Good luck!
DS
I’m not ready to short just yet knowing buyers are parked above 88.00 based on the price action seen over the past week. Liquidity is also likely to wane ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. But if NZD/JPY were to fail again at the former uptrend, especially post Powell, the conviction behind the trade would increase considerably.
Stops could be placed above the uptrend with shorts targeting a push towards 87.72. If that level gives way, there’s little major support to speak of until you get down to 83.50.
I’ve included correlation analysis in the bottom pane, looking at the rolling daily relationship NZD/JPY has had with Nasdaq 100 futures over the past fortnight. At 0.88, the strength of the correlation suggests a short setup is far more likely to succeed if risk appetite rolls over.
Good luck!
DS
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