Long $NVR $5,900 Price Target 2021
Since my last post, I've adjusted my price target to $5,900 per share. Analysts are too conservative and wrong about 
NVR and the influence of the unprecedented action from the Fed. That said, my price target has many assumptions baked in including continued low rates through all of 2021, a Trump re-election (extension of the low tax regime) and COVID resolution.
This estimate includes revenues of around ~88B, net income of ~11B, around ~750M spent on repurchases, a float of ~3.4M shares for EPS of around $295 per share next year.
The company has unbelievably high ROA, ROE, ROIC all from a very balanced capital structure. Operating income and hence operating cash flow is the most important characteristic of any business in my view. It'sNVR's ability to continue to produce strong operating cash flow that enables it to repurchase so much stock and enrich existing shareholders by increasing their proportionate equity.
NVR and the influence of the unprecedented action from the Fed. That said, my price target has many assumptions baked in including continued low rates through all of 2021, a Trump re-election (extension of the low tax regime) and COVID resolution.This estimate includes revenues of around ~88B, net income of ~11B, around ~750M spent on repurchases, a float of ~3.4M shares for EPS of around $295 per share next year.
The company has unbelievably high ROA, ROE, ROIC all from a very balanced capital structure. Operating income and hence operating cash flow is the most important characteristic of any business in my view. It's
NVR's ability to continue to produce strong operating cash flow that enables it to repurchase so much stock and enrich existing shareholders by increasing their proportionate equity.
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