Futures exploding as FAANG stocks all beat (except NFLX but for whatever reason doesn't seem to matter). The bearish scenario I can come up with is a sideways whipsaw that expands the triangle.
Either way, tomorrow will be painful for shorts.... I'm long on SMSI for earnings and have UAA puts. Wasn't sure which way this was going.... but obviously you're a genius if you bought QQQ calls this morning.
Either way, tomorrow will be painful for shorts.... I'm long on SMSI for earnings and have UAA puts. Wasn't sure which way this was going.... but obviously you're a genius if you bought QQQ calls this morning.
ความคิดเห็น:
NQ is overbought and small caps are not rallying, this appears to be strictly a FAANG stock earnings bump. Be careful about chasing it.
ความคิดเห็น:
QQQ Holdings:
- AAPL 11.93%
- FB 4.06%
- AMZN 10.95%
So 27% of QQQ went up 6% AH on earnings
.27 x .06 = .016
Hence QQQ went up 1.6% on those three earnings alone. Right now NQ is up 2% which means other tech stocks will also gap up.
Same calculation for SPY results in a 0.75% move up. SPX futures are up less than that, so SPX components don't get a pump unless futures move up.
Meanwhile small cap futures are down, no FAANG stocks.
- AAPL 11.93%
- FB 4.06%
- AMZN 10.95%
So 27% of QQQ went up 6% AH on earnings
.27 x .06 = .016
Hence QQQ went up 1.6% on those three earnings alone. Right now NQ is up 2% which means other tech stocks will also gap up.
Same calculation for SPY results in a 0.75% move up. SPX futures are up less than that, so SPX components don't get a pump unless futures move up.
Meanwhile small cap futures are down, no FAANG stocks.
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AAPL is 9.8% of the DOW which means a 150 pt bump for 6% earnings pop, but futures are headed down so the Dow might not even gap up.....
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Speaking of small caps, they usually lead the way down, it was the only index that didn't make a new high in Feb before the tank.
It's also capable of whipsawing sideways for months, so hard to tell....
It's also capable of whipsawing sideways for months, so hard to tell....
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Every market is red except indices with FAANG stocks, lol.
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Looks like my overlay was correct.... did exactly what it predicted (at least this morning, lol)
Small caps always lead the way down, and it's looking pretty bearish. However, I think the tank is done for the day.
Small caps always lead the way down, and it's looking pretty bearish. However, I think the tank is done for the day.
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This is the scenario I'm going with.... which indicates that the drop is done for the day and it probably goes sideways from here.
Dollar index threw an exhaustion gap last night, and feeling bearish for next week. If the dollar bounces, it's better to short foreign indices. I think I'm going with EWZ puts over the weekend.
Dollar index threw an exhaustion gap last night, and feeling bearish for next week. If the dollar bounces, it's better to short foreign indices. I think I'm going with EWZ puts over the weekend.
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Apparently they are going to make the market go up by pumping the crap out of AAPL (up 10%). Remember AAPL is 12% of NQ. I think this is going to continue next week.
Don;t short NQ or SPX unless you're watching AAPL.
Don;t short NQ or SPX unless you're watching AAPL.
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FIgures... NQ up slightly, SPX flat. Probably melts up for a week or so until AAPL shows some weakness.
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Dollar looking weak again, and both Asia and Euro markets look like they're going to do the usual Monday night/Tuesday morning rally for another pump and dump. RSI near overbought with MFI divergence.
That's my call for today.... pump and dump Tuesday. I'm long on SMSI for earnings, that's it. Got other stuff to do today, and I don't see it rallying much further today. Made some beer money flipping calls though.
That's my call for today.... pump and dump Tuesday. I'm long on SMSI for earnings, that's it. Got other stuff to do today, and I don't see it rallying much further today. Made some beer money flipping calls though.