NIFTY at 23100 - What's ahead - Analysis on Multiple parameters

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NIFTY at 23100 - What's ahead - Analysis on Multiple parameters

For the short term, price is most likely to hit 22800. Significance of the mother candle formed on 22nd Nov 600 points range bar it was. When it broke out on the upper boundary from the range, it has retested and then moved 900 points on the upside.. while technical target is 600 points minimum.

Now, the price has broken the lower boundary and retested at 23350.. the ideal/minimum expected target is 600 points on the downside, that would be 22750


1. AVWAP from Oct'23 is offering support.. But, price is consolidating at around the AVWAP instead of bouncing off (Check the price movement on 5th Jun'24 when the price approached the AVWAP. Price is likely to break the support and go lower.



The next meaningful AVWAP support is at 21800-900 levels



Fibs and Waves:

2. Price is trading in a channel, and the channel bottom is at 21800 level.. It also happens to be 100% fib extension from the top swing. If we consider this fall as ABC correction, then the AB=BC rule applies, targeting 21800. In all likelihood, this could be achieved by 4th Feb (After the budget and Monitory policy by RBI Governor



Supply / Demand

3. As you can see, We are trading below the buyer's zone (the green arrows).. and the Price is now well accepted within the supply/seller zone of 5th June at 23180 (Red arrows). The seller pushed it down towards 21800 in a jiffy. Unless, we close and trade above 23200, the downward pressure will continue. The only Hope is that there was a strong buy candle at 22800 (formed on 7th June).. So, we can possibly expect the price to halt/bounce from there for now.

At the same time, if the price is accepted below 22800, then the sellers of 9th April and 3rd May also will join the part to push the price down towards 21800




I am not a SEBI registered Analyst. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.

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Price tested 22800 and gave a bounce.. lets see how far this bounce could go