31st Oct ’23 - Unusual Opening 5mts Candle - Nifty PostMortem
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.”
The open (19233.7) was quite strange, a mega gap up right at the resistance level of 19226. If we had gone further up from there, I would have definitely changed my stance from neutral to bullish. Instead, we started falling. The gap was closed in 10mts and we went further south. By 10.40 we lost almost 168pts ~ 0.88%. Fortunately for the bulls, the fall stopped right there, even the close of the day was around those levels.
From 27th Oct I had a neutral call on Nifty50. Nifty closed at 19060 then, it is at 19086 today. Connecting the dots, what I still feel is we are waiting for the bearish momentum to pick up. A look at the 1hr TF with the Fibonacci levels will cement this thought.
Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
Recap from yesterday: “Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.”
The open (19233.7) was quite strange, a mega gap up right at the resistance level of 19226. If we had gone further up from there, I would have definitely changed my stance from neutral to bullish. Instead, we started falling. The gap was closed in 10mts and we went further south. By 10.40 we lost almost 168pts ~ 0.88%. Fortunately for the bulls, the fall stopped right there, even the close of the day was around those levels.
From 27th Oct I had a neutral call on Nifty50. Nifty closed at 19060 then, it is at 19086 today. Connecting the dots, what I still feel is we are waiting for the bearish momentum to pick up. A look at the 1hr TF with the Fibonacci levels will cement this thought.
Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
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