Nasdaq 100 Trend Analysis

The price has remained inside of the secular uptrend (blue) for the last 10 years. In July of this year a breakout occurred which appears to be a head fake of the uptrend. Since breakout, the price has formed a rough head and shoulders which is clearly visible in the RSI indicator.

On October 1st the price ricocheted from the top of the short term downtrend (orange) and gapped down, indicating exhaustion. The price target is the bottom of the downtrend. A quick pullback to the secular trend is then likely.

This price move would confirm the head and shoulders pattern. As the result, a violent downwards move to a potential trend bottom (red) would occur. If the price breaches that potential trend and continues to the bottom of the secular uptrend, it is possible that it would breakout to the downside and begin a secular downtrend.