LTC: bullish reversal signal?

25 ก.พ. 2018

This might be a potential bullish reversal since the downward move. For the second time it was LTC who was the first to initiate a potential reversal. All eyes are on big brother BTC, while in my eyes LTC is the leader of the pack. Bigger brothers aren't always the most charismatic ones.

IF price closes above 190 LTC/EUR (235 LTC/USD), it might be a nice potential to find higher prices.

This is just my interpretation of the current situation and NOT a recommendation to buy or sell. Future will tell.

PN

26 ก.พ. 2018

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Characteristics checklist for the Cup and Handle chart pattern:

- prior to the formation of the cup and handle, the price needs to have been in an uptrend of at least 30%. This was the case, since on 17 januari LTC reached a low of 106 EUR. At the start of the pattern formation on 18 jan, price had risen 64%! CHECK
- the cup and handle construction duration time (start to finish) must regularly be a minimum of 7 weeks. In this case its 38 days, but since crypto's are 24/7, we can divide 38 by 5, which is >7 weeks. CHECK
- The handle must take at least 5 days. In this case it took 7 days. CHECK
- The downward slope of the handle should not exceed the low of the cup. Ideally the decline of the handle should be around 8-12%. In this case it is 21%, which is not ideal, but since it doesn't exceed the decline in the cup (high-low: 56%), plus we were in a bear market, and that is acceptable. CHECK
- The handle must be on the upper part of the cup. Simple check: pick highest price and lowest price within the handle and divide by 2. This should be higher than the midpoint of the cup. CHECK
- Last but not least: a good cup with handle should truly resemble a nicely formed tea cup. With the shading that I added, it does like it, but to be honest: I have seen better examples. It looks like a bruised and battered tin cup. One that after many adventurous years of backpacking - accidentally fell out of a backpack and unluckily found its way into a ravine. The choppy shape of the cup shows that that we are in a volatile market, where the price isn't set in stone. It could go the moon or go down to hell. Its exemplary for the emotional state this market is in. CHECK
- Volume should normally be low in the base and handle of the cup. This is not really the case, but again exemplary of this market. CHECK
- The breakout should occur above the MA50. CHECK
- Now the big question: when to buy? A general rule of thumb is 10% above the highest point of the handle. In this case that would be 224 EUR (275 USD). That is safe. Since I choose to accept the risk of a failed breakout, I go for 10% above the breakout of the handle. However, pay close attention to volume. Daily volume should be >40% than the MA50.

Always keep in mind that each trading idea, is just a personal interpretation of the market and never offer guarantees of a positive outcome. The price is the only thing that is real. Therefore, this idea is intended merely educational and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.

If you are risk averse, I would not advise to invest money in something as volatile as cryptocurrencies. Each investor must always consciously determine his/her personal risk profile and act accordingly. It is all about finding a balance between the potential costs involved in the calculated risk and the costs of avoiding it. Most importantly: never invest money that you can not miss.

Anyway the unsuspecting owners wonder where their cup is, and hey: we found it! Now lets restore it to its former glory and bring it back!

AP

26 ก.พ. 2018

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Volume and price are moving up since 9:45 (CET). Investors creating up and downward spikes (pump and dump). Be careful here.

Taking position in these micro up and downward spikes involves a lot of risk in which a lot of unexperienced traders have a high risk of losing a significant amount of their investment in a short timeframe.

Trust me, 80% of the traders are not capable of controlling the price (by more than 20%). Max 20% of the traders are big (highly experienced) investors, and have the ability to influence price by 80%.

At this very moment it is better to exercise the art of patience and perseverance. I see a lot of new traders lose money because they believe otherwise. That's a classic mistake unexperienced traders make. If you give in to emotions like greed or fear, there is a big chance to make the worst decisions. So stay calm and focused. It involves less risk to sit it out, and see where the market brings us. Don't forget the bigger picture: we have not reached a breakout yet.

26 ก.พ. 2018

บันทึกช่วยจำ

I predict that any moment from now, the potential up- & downtrend will launch. I am leaning more to the uptrend, but have my options open in case it will reverse.

26 ก.พ. 2018

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With & I meant "or". We are in a squeze right now. ADX is slighty positive, MACD slighty negative, RSI still in bullish area.